Since I don't know of anyone who's trading this intraday other than 40D, I won't be providing running commentary, but I do want to point out that we just hit 50 (see chart posted earlier).
Why not just keep playing 32? Of course this all looks like hindsight but essentially wasn't all of that sideways action just an hourly RET?Break 32/retesting.
If one were trading hourly bars, that would be a reasonable approach. The entry, however, would be in the mid-40s or higher.
Completely understand. What I am saying though is IF that hourly ret ends up triggering and continues you'd already be in from an intraday standpoint since the area of 32 was holding for the most part. Sure we traded lower but bounced back up off 28 (sorry not at a computer i think it was 28) then back to 32 which held. This had me thinking up. Of course none of this has to work out and we are trading around a mean but worst case we hit the mean and don't go further but IF that hourly RET pans out we are already in. Just something I found interesting today.
What reason would you have for entering at 32 since there is at that time no hourly ret? If you want to enter at 32, just go ahead and enter at 32 and forget about bars and rets.
Db, I mean no offense, but often times I do see you asking if anyone is finding this beneficial so I'd like to give you my honest opinion. First of all, 40D clearly doesn't need any help. Its great that he has his own set of people he has chosen to help through private messaging, and its a shame that none of us can be privy to these conversations as they might in fact be helpful to the rest of us, but oh well. I was very eager to see your answer to the question that was posted last night about the action once we got to the pre-open resistance level shortly after the open because when we broke above that level of resistance you had outlined at 4212, it got very messy, so I was very eager to read what one should do with it/about it. Today I had the very same hinge drawn going into the open as you did, and sure, the mean of 4239 proved to be an area that traders kept going back to, until of course they didn't. But does this mean that after we dropped below the hinge you could say you were looking for a long for the ride to test the same distance above the mean? Dropping out of a hinge makes you assume the new direction is down. At what point do you abandon the notion that traders have chosen to go down? Surely there must have been a short in there somewhere once we dropped out of the hinge, and then of course, there must have been an exit as well since we clearly didn't go down far. But is an exit really justified until at least we test the apex of the hinge? Going through the mean and above the hinge makes you assume traders rejected going down and now are going up, so at what point could one go long? My point is that it all makes sense to say what they are doing after you have seen them do it. At the moment that price drops below the hinge, you are in no way preparing for price to go above the mean/apex of 4239... are you? You're looking for an entry down are you not? (assuming you're not worried about the PDH which is at 4232). Then you very quickly have to abandon the idea of shorting, and if you never did short, then why even draw the hinge in the first place if you won't do anything about it, and more importantly, what would make you not short? My frustration is with what is one to do about this in real time? Sure you can say that a person shouldn't be trading until they understand what's going on, and if the only answer you can give is that once you observe enough you will know what to do, then please completely disregard this message as I'm very aware of this answer, and I can even delete this post as not to muddy your journal if you ask me to within the allotted hour that I have to do so. (It clearly hasn't come to me yet) The whole thing about being successful at trading is putting on a trade, doing something about what you see, and doing it in a place that leads to the best reward potential with the lowest risk. If the point of your thread is to show concepts and just that price moves between different levels without discussing entries, then I find it almost too much of a tease when you point out that yesterday was easy with 30 points down and then 30 points up, or whatever those numbers were, because this then makes one curious about why you took the entries that you did. So on the one hand you say you don't discuss entries, and then on the other hand, you mention the bountiful opportunity. (your comment may have been made to another thread though as I don't recall too clearly) So as much as I'm learning from your charts and you pointing out what are the important areas to be looking at, by the time its obvious of what is happening, this is usually the worst place to enter, unless of course its one of those rare days where price just moves nicely in one direction for 50 points, with each retracement never retracing 50% of the previous move.
Why do we have to go through this again? If you prefer to develop your own "style", you have to observe, hypothesize, backtest, forwardtest, simtrade and so on. You don't want to do any of that, much less put together a database of metrics you've collected. You haven't followed any of the suggestions that have been made to you, including mine. You'd rather "feel" your way through the day. Stop playing "Poor Little Old Me" and blaming others on your lack of progress. If you refuse to do the work then you have no one to blame but yourself.
DB work is incomplete, it's mostly for hindsight, like moving averages, except moving averages require no work, computer does it for you. Notice how ambiguous he is, does not post blottters, no student is killing it and proving it, etc. etc. Best indicator is your P/L if that's not positive time after time at the end of the day, your system sucks. Last but not least dont be gullible.