It is my contention that so many people are looking for a pullback, that a pull back won't happen. When everyone is bullish, then expect it.
here in the real world, market cap and size matters if there is X dollars margined in a 10 million dollars market that is more worrisome than 2x dollars margined in a 500 million dollars market, even though the latter has twice as much money margined apparently, statistics and math are too difficult for you
This is it folks. The market seems to be capitulating just like in May. Everyone fleeing to large value. I cashed out all my foreign mutual funds. Right after Christmas, all the Christmas stocks will sell off and then the tax selling will hit right after the New Year and it will be a chain reaction from there. The foreign markets and nasdaq will get hit the hardest. I look forward to a pullback though...
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/WEEKLY/MARGIN_NYSE.htm those margin #s are nowhere near 2000...
Do you have the current statistics for the amount of traders using 200 to 1 at prop firms today versus back then ?
This is it. Christmas sell-off and then next year will be tax selling in January on gains made in the last 6 months. All these are fairly routine things that happen each year. However, I believe this will be the match that starts the inferno. As I have said before, this next correction will be sharper then the last.
good consumer confidence # i bet money that the market will be up nicely next week. and if i'm wrong, i bet even more money (double up) the market will DEFINITELY be up the first week of the year. we can come back to this post if I'm wrong on both and you can dangle it in my face, OK? no liquidity right now -- market is getting sold when there's no mutual fund buyers operating now. easy money for hedge funds. path of least resistance is down without institutional support. you should be buying index futures right now.
No, Im not going to dangle it in your face. This is just educated guessing we are doing here. My gut feeling is that its sideways until the New Year, but then 2007 will be a new ballgame. Most people are saying that its going to be 2 weeks into January before the real splat. Setting all the news aside and happenings in the market, doesnt this chart tell you that something is about to happen... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p89885308885