House of Cards ready to fall

Discussion in 'Trading' started by eagle488, Dec 18, 2006.

  1. Ok and if the dollar depreciates by 10%, how would you feel about those same stocks if in the same period if they stayed flat. Would you be bullished, neutral or bearish on them?
     
    #11     Dec 18, 2006
  2. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Not that the question was directed to me, but if it is an S&P500 stock, it doesn't matter. I plot the graph of the SPX in Euros on Bloomberg, and it matches the European market. Basically, the rally we had after 11/24 was due to dollar going down but multinationals being priced in the world market. But it does confuse me...the same logic doesn't apply in Asia?
     
    #12     Dec 18, 2006
  3. volente_00

    volente_00

    He said more margin, not higher leverage is being used. He is talking about $ amount, not %. What is the market cap of the market today vs back then ?
     
    #13     Dec 19, 2006
  4. market cap is obviously more

    but that's a silly metric, to use an absolute basis

    a relevant measurement would be how much margin PER investor or as a percentage of assets

    obviously, when a nation has far more PEOPLE, and far more INVESTMENTs and far more market capitalization, they are going to have more margin on an absolute basis

    how that is even remotely relevant?

    the point is that people are nowhere NEAR as highly leveraged now as they were in 1929
     
    #14     Dec 19, 2006
  5. Should be OK. Generated on Linux box using convert image processing utility. Display OK with konqueror browser and other image viewing tools. My firefox is broken, so I can't try that at the moment and my Windows box is no more so I can't try IE.

    If you are using IE try Firefox.
     
    #15     Dec 19, 2006
  6. Banking profits eh?

    The rest of 2006 will be flat to down.
     
    #16     Dec 19, 2006
  7. volente_00

    volente_00



    2000, then 2003 were the records



    http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/stocks/2003-09-24-margin_x.htm
     
    #17     Dec 19, 2006
  8. volente_00

    volente_00

    Because 75 years ago, people were far less involved in the market compared to after the internet brought easy access. 10 :1 is nothing, when you TODAY have guys at prop firms now trading 100 to 200 to 1.
     
    #18     Dec 19, 2006
  9. Most people buy on margin. It is the best way to leverage your buying power. I think the stock market is going to crash is really over doing it. You cannot compare the US stock exchanges with India and other emerging markets. If it was the Dax or FTSE, that is a different story.
     
    #19     Dec 19, 2006
  10. volente, guys using 100 to 1 margin etc. at prop shops are a phenomenally tiny %age of people involved in the market

    get real

    they are barely even statistically significant
     
    #20     Dec 19, 2006