Hottest IPO of the year ... THI

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Samson77, Mar 13, 2006.

  1. How about:

     
    #11     Mar 13, 2006
  2. I live in the Great :Lakes region, and they just opened up 4 new Tim Horton's in my town. People here are flocking to them, me included:p

    Too bad WR Hambrecht isn't a co-underwriter, or else I'd buy some Dutch style.
     
    #12     Mar 13, 2006
  3. ozzy

    ozzy

    Tim Hortons I love you.

    I'm gonna buy a franchise when I make some $$$$$$$. A little diversification a la the coffee bean.

    I know a few spots where there's no Timmie's. And no I ain't telling you mofos where.

    :D
     
    #13     Mar 13, 2006
  4. I'm convinced they put cocaine in the doughnut batter and in the beans because they are seriously addicting.

    We have line ups at most of the locations 5-10 cars deep most days.
     
    #14     Mar 13, 2006
  5. FCCT

    FCCT

    Shouldve bought WEN when the ipo deals were released, feb 28, at 58 bucks, wendys will own the bulk of tims shares.
     
    #15     Mar 13, 2006
  6. LOL! Do you know how I can be part of a public offering through a direct access broker who has no idea what an investment bank is??

    Stick to secondary market trading ajimow
     
    #16     Mar 13, 2006
  7. This baby going public tomorrow or what?
     
    #17     Mar 23, 2006
  8. Tim Hortons Announces Pricing for Its Initial Public Offering
    Mar 23 at 18:44

    OAKVILLE, Ontario--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 23, 2006--
    Tim Hortons Inc. announced the pricing of its initial public offering of
    29 million shares of common stock, at a price of C$27.00 (U.S.$23.162).
    Trading is expected to begin on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto
    Stock Exchange on Friday, March 24, 2006. The underwriters, in consultation with
    Management, have targeted approximately 60% of the share allocation to Canadian
    investors.
    The Toronto Stock Exchange has conditionally approved the listing of the
    Company's common stock under the symbol "THI." The New York Stock Exchange has
    approved the listing of the Company's common stock under the symbol "THI."
    Following the offering, Tim Hortons will remain 82% to 85% owned by
    Wendy's International, Inc. The Company has granted the underwriters the option
    to purchase up to an additional 4.35 million shares of common stock from Tim
    Hortons at the initial public offering price less the underwriting discount to
    cover over-allotments, if any.
    "This offering represents an incredible milestone and accomplishment in
    our 41-year history," said President and Chief Executive Officer Paul House. "I
    would like to extend my personal thanks to our store owners and their dedicated
    employees, our entire staff and the many business partners and friends of Tim
    Hortons for making our Company what it is today."
    "This is the first step in Wendy's plan to unlock the stand-alone value of
    Tim Hortons, which is a strategic initiative that we announced in July," said
    Wendy's International, Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jack
    Schuessler. "The initial public offering will allow the market to establish a
    trading value for Tim Hortons."
    Wendy's has said it intends to spin off the remaining portion of Tim
    Hortons as soon as practical, which is expected to occur by December 31, 2006.
    Goldman, Sachs & Co. and RBC Capital Markets are the joint book runners
    for the offering. The co-leads are JPMorgan and Scotia Capital. The other
    co-managing underwriters in the syndicate are Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc., CIBC
    World Markets, Cowen & Company, Harris Nesbitt, Lazard Capital Markets, Merrill
    Lynch & Co. and TD Securities.
    Tim Hortons IPO statement
    A final supplemented prospectus containing pricing information will be
    filed with the applicable Canadian regulatory authorities and will be available
    at www.sedar.com. U.S. residents may obtain a copy of the final prospectus of
    Tim Hortons Inc. by contacting Goldman, Sachs & Co. at (212) 902-1171 or RBC
    Capital Markets at (212) 428-6532.
    Source: Tim Hortons Inc.
     
    #18     Mar 23, 2006
  9. LH,
    Much obliged.
     
    #19     Mar 23, 2006
  10. just to balance things out, I thought I'd throw a bear perspective in the mix:

    this is from: http://retailstockblog.com/article/7964
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    Founded in 1964, Tim Horton’s is an extremely popular coffee chain in Canada. Based on sales, they are the largest quick-service restaurant chain in Canada. Since being acquired by Wendy’s in 1995, Tim Hortons Canada has grown from 1,180 outlets to 2,597. Their sales have grown at a compounded annual rate of 17.6% during this same period. These numbers are impressive, but it is extremely important to know that growth has slowed. For fiscal 2005, the company reported sales of $1.5 Billion, which represents a year over year increase of 10.7% — significantly lower than the aforementioned 17.6% top-line growth rate. Excluding charges, the company’s fiscal 2005 profit of $191 Million represents an increase of 9.5% over the previous year. All of these figures reported by Tim Hortons are in Canadian dollars.

    As mentioned, growth has slowed, and this is a trend that I see continuing. Because of their already established position in Canada, their growth prospects are limited. Currently, there is one Tim Hortons for approximately every 11,500 Canadians. That is more than double the ratio of one McDonalds for every 21,700 Americans. There are nearly as many Tim Hortons per Canadian as there is McDonalds, Wendy’s, or Burger King combined per American. Given these figures, the market for Tim Hortons in Canada appears to be closing in on saturation. Obviously, this does not bode well for future growth.

    With growth prospects lacking in Canada at this point, Tim Hortons will need to expand into the United States. Based on past results of the company’s state-side operations, significant growth in the U.S. appears unlikely. Without a strong brand name, increased competition, and higher construction costs, outlets in the states have been much less profitable and willing qualified franchisees have been hard to come by.

    The target price range for the IPO is currently $18-$20, which would value the company at nearly $4 Billion. Based solely on a price to sales ratio, I feel they are overvalued should their IPO come in at this range (Tim Hortons would have a P/S of about 4 when valuing them at $4 Billion, McDonalds has a P/S of 2.2 for a comparison), especially given their limited growth prospects.

    Given the recent success of similar IPOs, most notably Chipotle, I see this stock coming in above their target range, further overvaluing them. Chipotle has the growth prospects to warrant a 100% first day jump, Tim Hortons prospects dont warrant much of a jump at all. Based on investor sentiment in this sector though, I believe they will jump.

    Taking into account their high price to sales ratio, limited growth potential, and a first day run-up that I am expecting; I would advise you to stay away from this IPO. You Can Be a Stock Market Genius suggests investing in Spin-Offs, given that they historically have outperformed the broad market by about 10%, but only after researching the company thoroughly. From the research that I have done and presented thus far, I don’t see Tim Hortons yielding results reminiscient of Spin-Offs as a whole, I actually see them underperforming in the first year following their IPO. As always, put in your own due dilligence, maybe you will find something different then I have. As I see it though, I strongly advise against getting caught up in any hype that may follow Tim Hortons and its stock for the short term. I am predicting that one year from their IPO, Tim Hortons shares will be exchanging hands for less than their first day’s closing price.
     
    #20     Mar 23, 2006