Horrible recession: Why are steel stocks breaking out?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by makloda, Apr 4, 2008.

  1. Somehow these charts don't make much sense in a 'rapid global economic implosion' and 'worst depression since 1933' scenario now do they. Does the equity market have got it wrong again as the bond markets are telling a very different story :confused:

  2. lindq


    Investors buy based on future expectations. And in the case of steel, the expectations are for continued long term expansion of the markets worldwide. Enough money is looking past short term problems to keep the stocks moving.
  3. I see steel being a huge mover this year. There is no indication of worldwide demand decreasing anytime soon.
  4. Blogs and other financial sites are expecting Alcoa (AA) - aluminum to beat when they announce earnings this coming Monday.

    All signs point to $.50-.55 per share over the $.48 analyst expectation.

    Guess we will see if I am right Monday after close. :D

  6. America has seen recession before, and survived all along. This is not even a recession yet. The Lion has just roared and the mouse is whimpering into the hole! Total doom & gloom and constant obsession with pessimism and negativity.

    Here is some Technical Analysis from S&P Market scope:

    " The technical conditions of the stock market showed significant improvement during the week. We’ve discussed some of them in this commentary during the week. First, as we mentioned above, the market internals have improved. Both the advance/decline lines and the new high/new low lines on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ have started to turn up. Secondly, the 50 day moving averages of all three major indexes and many stocks have turned up. Not only is an upward sloping 50 day moving average line an intermediate term bullish sign, it also provides a technical support level during any potential pullback. Lastly, the fear has subsided in the market. After falling below its 200 day moving average on Tuesday (22.68), the CBOE volatility index (VIX) has remained near that level and closed the week at 22.45. This is quite a contrast to its behavior in the past six months. Since last October, VIX has bounced off its 200 day moving average every time it fell to that level. The ability of VIX to stay at the relatively low level around its 200 day moving average in the past week suggests that the stock market could be changing its behavior after six months of a down trend. The likely trend going forward is up or sideways."
  7. I am not here to prove anything. It is not my hypothesis, it's the bond markets' hypothesis. I am simply pointing out that there are different perceptions of where the economy is going in some cyclical equity sectors such as steel and the bond markets. Both camps can't be right at the same time. Something's gotta give.

  8. Bond markets thrive on doom and gloom. Chronically depressed traders in that market.

    Your statements " Horrible Recession" are a far cry from truth. First prove that we are in recession and than make these flaming statements. The burden of proof rests on you since you posted this original thread.
  9. I live in Texas and it's booming here, and I buy steel from time to time and it's going up big

    you call an AC/heat guy up and he'll say "I can get there in 3 weeks"

    now, if you bot a 2 bedroom / 1 bath stucco dump termite farm in San Diego for $1.5 mill, it's a horror show...

    elsewhere, booming....