The nvda mlnx deal was closed and approved a long time ago. What are you talking about. And mellanox never competed in the ai arena. They are a network equipment pure play. Nvidia bought mellanox because of its interconnect fabric which they need to improve their inter gpu data transfers and server node communication. The deal will never be broken because of any Chinese influence. It's a way too important merger from the US standpoint and it's a done deal. I am happy to make a bet on that. You attach a way too high probability at China causing a rupture for this particular merger and you are subsequently mispricing.
what the hay are you talking about? the deal is pending regulatory approvals by EU and China. The deal will "never" be broken? where that confidence comes from is beyond my understanding. Why don't you go all long on MLNX then. Nvidia chips are competing with Huawai's ascend chips, mlnx supplies to chinese supercomputers, and I doubt china will let the deal go easily. Did you even trade the qcom/nxpi deal.
And there is a zero probability that the EU will block this deal. Nvidia and Mellanox are complementary, they are not creating any monopoly or other market disruptions. If China wants to block this deal then Nvidia will simply move production out of China for its Mellanox network equipment. Nvidia derives much more value from mellanox in its portfolio than doing business in China and in any case Nvidia is way too important for China so what probabilities do you attach to China preventing domestic firms from purchasing Nvidia equipment? I am saying you are mispricing probabilities here. When I stated the deal is approved then I was referring to the country of origin (US and Israel) where the acquision received broad based approval. China's approval or disapproval is in the grand scheme of things for Nvidia irrelevant. You will see. And why I don't trade this acquision? Because it is already fully priced in which only adds to my confidence.
you said the deal was closed when it isn't. you think i am wrong, i think you are wrong, a market exists. yes china's approval is irrelevant when without it the deal can't proceed. you are so confident yet you don't have a position despite the currently wide spread, contradiction? anyways, going nowhere, end of talk
First off, you were the one who went off tangent with your merger bla, in a thread that concerns itself with the HKD. Each firm derives around 25% in sales from China, tendency: sinking. Combine that with current trade tensions and a major re-think of global companies whether it is better to exit the Chinese market altogether and you get to a percentage that might be too low to justify a breakup of this deal. If you understand what Mellanox really brings to the table then you will understand that Mellanox is absolutely essential for Nvidia's future. Nvidia has over many years made hardly any progress at all in pushing inter-connect bandwidth to new levels. Now AMD converges with their GPU raw performance and the only way to retain an edge in the enterprise segment is innovation in interconnect bandwidth when fanning out computations to hundreds if not thousands of GPUs across multiple GPU compute servers. The deal can very much proceed without China's approval, all it takes is the willingness to sell less in China. Also, the US would reciprocate when it comes to any future takeovers by Chinese companies. China knows that perfectly well. I do not trade situations, my specialization is high-frequency cash fx, hence, no contradiction of me not being in a position in this. You misprice and its your choice. So, agree with your last sentence, agree to disagree.
Good to disagree! But you are trying to rationalise China's stance and deal logic/sales distribution blah blah, which got me and many others killed in qcom/nxpi. For china, it is a show of pride which still holds there.
Where did I rationalize China's stance? You can bet that China is most every decision makes a highly calculated move, hence it is almost all rational decision making. Just not the outcomes you hope for and bet on. Please don't make me laugh if you truly believe America's decision making in this trade conflict is not 100x more motivated by hurt emotions and pride.
ok, your confidence level is substantially higher than that implied in the market. talk is cheap, put money where your mouth is.
My edge is in pushing lower probabilities of success but turning them over many times each day. Good luck with your position.
do you watch the trading or hands-off&eyes-off? point being, how are your hours if you are in asia? when i scale my account 2x, i plan to move to canada for the timezone