You wrote...two signs of heightened/elevated levels of commitment to the daily trend include: (1) the counter-trend side of the 30-minute price range envelope at 0.19% deviation outpacing the counter-trend side of the four-hour price flow channel at 0.10% deviation, and (2) the leading band of the four-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation outstripping the leading band of the 6½-hour price range envelope at 0.50% deviation for longer than half a day, which is to say, 12 hours). Yet, a cursory glance at certain hourly charts recommends radical offshoots from the 6½-hour baseline as harbingers of possible pending reversals, but at what levels? This is difficult to determine because of how much the 6½-hour measure fluctuates. However, a fresh look at the situation finds that the more stable 12-hour price flow channel at 0.20% deviation serves as a much better benchmark for defining these very same levels. Other points stemming from this fresh look are... The "global" trajectory of price is best conveyed by the 12- and four-day price flows, but practically speaking, these two measures are neither here nor there, because it might be days-and-days before rates finally get around to coming back under the influence of even four-day momentum, and it can take as long as two weeks, if not longer, before it becomes apparent that there has been a reversal in the four-day trend. So then really, you're referring to the 1-, 1½- and 2-day baselines as road signs for where rates are ultimately headed. But then again, it can take up to three days, if not longer, for price to get back on track even here. Therefore, practically speaking, it's actually the 12-hour price flow channel at 0.20% deviation which is the basic framework on which everything else should be constructed. During periods like that from February 22nd to February 31st, the 12-hour channel is going to be virtually flat, with price transitioning back and forth above and bellow the measure (and possibly beyond to the 0.50% deviation level of the 6½-hour price range envelope). When rates ebb and flow every two or three days, but essentially go nowhere overall (as has been doing ever since February 5th), the 12-hour channel will be lagging. So, to gauge when price is beginning to really move, look for the counter-trend side of the two-hour price range envelope at 0.17% deviation to clear the 6½-hour baseline. The other baselines you need to monitor in this context (before you drill down to the 30-, 5- and 3-minute measures) are the one- and 3½-hour moving averages. Also, if the upper or lower band of the 12-hour channel remains perfectly aligned with the slope of the 6½-hour baseline while price pulls back to the contrary side of the two-hour price range envelope, it’s possible that you could be looking at a potentially profitable trade setup. (Combine these measures and those from Post #40 on one chart.)
To help test the tactic/strategy illustrated in Post #42 I purchased 200 EURJPY weekly out-of-the-money binary option call contracts with a strike price of 161.75. So far, so good; and theoretically, the rate has four more days to climb even deeper in-the-money. But of course, that also means there are four more days in which the situation can radically change, with the global and local trends transitioning from bullish to bearish, thereby handing me a loss when all is said and done.
Given that anything could happen over the next three days and 18 hours, and seeing as how all three contracts are deep enough in the money at this point for me to be satisfied with the amount of profit currently available, I'm going to go ahead and lock in the gains I've already realized by exiting all my positions now. So then, this would be an advantage of Deriv.com in that I can exit my NADEX trades before expiry at any time I wish.
I'm now satisfied that the forecast model from Post #42 is a workable product for me, with these three additional positions entered this morning as close to at-the-money levels as possible given Nadex's strike price structure, so far being headed in my favor... I don't think there's much more advice I can develop/generate for myself on this topic. I simply need to go ahead and continue applying it in my live trading accounts, God willing.
In my experience, binary options trading often leads to losses due to the inherently high risk and limited reward structure. I recommend approaching binary options with extreme caution, if at all, and focusing instead on traditional financial markets with more transparent and regulated trading instruments. Additionally, prioritize education, risk management, and seeking advice from reputable sources to avoid falling victim to scams or fraudulent schemes prevalent in the binary options industry.
For me, binary options trading is more complicated than forex. After all, in addition to the ability to determine a profitable entry point and the direction of price movement, here you also need to guess the expiration time. And this complicates trading and increases the chance of losses.