Entering this short position based on the rate bouncing off the top of the two-hour price range was a justified decision. The only problem was...you should have set expiry for a mere 30 minutes in that 90 minutes allowed too much time for subsequent influences to begin to have an impact.
I'm going to start making longer-range prognostications based on a forecast model displaying a "pullback baseline." This benchmark was tagged by USDJPY yesterday, so unless the U.S. dollar-Japanese yen is going to reverse its two-day price flow, I would expect to see the pair head higher from here. My only question is: How many days will it take to do so?
The "pullback baseline" has suggested that AUDUSD adopted a bearish demeanor back on December 28, 2023. Nonetheless, from January 17th to January 31st of this year, the pair spent about eleven days going absolutely nowhere. No way do I wish to get hung up for that long a period of time, waiting to see if an asset is going to continue its overall trajectory, or reverse course. I'm therefore going to drill down to a more granular level to see if I can't finagle a solution...especially since I just noticed that it's started doing the same thing ever since February 5th.
From January 22nd to January 31st, the eight-hour baseline was essentially flat, which translated to the corresponding lower-panel histogram almost never clearing 0.1589 or -0.1589, and rarely even making it to 0.087 or -0.087. This in turn resulted in price never breaching the 0.45% deviation level of the eight-hour price range envelope beyond an hour. And between February 5th and the Present, though the eight-hour baseline has evidenced a greater degree of slope, it has done so while wavering up and down between bullish and bearish attitudes. However, signs of heightened/elevated levels of commitment to the intraday trend included: Candlesticks forming beyond the 0.10% deviation level of the 4½-hour price flow channel. The hourly and two-hour trend lines, at the very least, keeping pace with the slope(s) of the 4½- and/or eight-hour envelope(s), but without "spiking/plunging" if outpacing these measures. The (middle-panel) 4½-hour oscillator maintaining an external positional relationship with the channel formed by the upper and lower bands at 0.866 and -0.866. (So, what happens if I take these guidelines and see what they can do to inform the decision-making process in the context of the 120-, 30-, 15- and 5-minute measures—if anything?)
If today's results are any indication, this basic tactic appears to hold an adequate amount of promise... Simply wait for rates to top or bottom out at or near these support/resistance zones.
The problem with these products is you are immediately putting time constraints and forming boundaries that can rapidly change. This limits your capacity to mold to the evolving landscape.
So in a nutshell (the above notwithstanding) you basically just want to always be surfing the 15-minute price flow. If candlesticks breach the counter-trend side of the 15-minute price flow channel at 0.02% deviation (which serves as a stop loss), it is indicative of an intraday trend reversal and you can begin considering acting accordingly. IF the reversal is legit/authentic, it will be verified by candlesticks hitching a ride on (sliding up or down) the corresponding band of the proprietary dynamic/adjustable 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.05% deviation. Pullbacks and resumptions in the 15-minute price flow are traced/tracked by the positional relationship of candlesticks with the three-minute baseline (and sometimes in conjunction with the 8½-minute baseline as well). That's pretty much all there is to it.
Theoretically, this should fit well with Nadex 20-minute binary options. I've therefore started the process of adjusting the settings for trading USA indices in place of foreign currency pairs. The first change I've had to make is increasing the deviation levels on the 15-minute price flow channel from 0.02% and 0.07% to 0.06% and 0.40%. The 60-minute price range envelope doesn't really exist in the sense that no standard, generic or cookie-cutter range can be set. The 15-minute price flow channel is bumped up to 0.04% and the 8½-minute channel is increased to 0.07%.
Signs of heightened/elevated levels of commitment to the daily trend: The counter-trend side of the 30-minute price range envelope at 0.19% deviation outpacing the counter-trend side of the four-hour price flow channel at 0.10% deviation. The leading band of the four-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation outstripping the leading band of the 6½-price range envelope at 0.50% deviation for longer than half a day (12 hours). Intraday, look for... The 80-minute baseline positioned outside the four-hour price flow channel at 0.10% deviation. The slope of the 80-minute baseline matching the trajectory of the four-hour price flow. The 15- and 30-minute baselines positioned on the leading side of the 80-minute baseline.