I bought ITB at 15 and sold at 18 thinking the rally was over for that etf, was I wrong on that, it has skyrocketed over the last few weeks jumping over $21 a share, I do think its time for that to sell off somewhat, I put it at $18 over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe even sooner. ITB is OVERBOUGHT.
Totally agree, they think interest rate cuts are going to cause real estate to take off again or at least find a bottom sooner than later. Its a joke to believe housing is done moving lower, there is another 10-15% drop for real estate over the next 12 months and thats just the low end of the drop im predicting. I think anyone holding homebuilders that have seen anywhere between a 25-50% return over the last month should walk away with those profits very soon, there is no bottom in housing just yet, homebuilders will fall again. Sell while you have the chance and buy back later, I use XHB as a guide to trade homebuilders and XHB is up over 50% in only 3-4 weeks meaning the rally is just about over for these stocks. Might grab a little more upswing, but its not worth being greedy over a 25-50% return.
When homebuilders turn the corner , it seems real estate is on the mend and mat recover. This is the first sign that housing markets have bottomed and ready to turn corner. This year we may see some recovery in real estate.
Have you ever seen a sector make a reversal like homebuilders have over the past few weeks and keep going up? I haven't. Those charts look like they are setting up for some good shorts in the next few days.
Ive never not not seen a reversal of such a move...especially in a industry where the product is just beginning a massive descent.
Just beginning??? Where have you been for the last couple of years? Correction started in 2005. It is about time we see some signs of bottoming.
Just so you know there are $100 billion worth of ARMS resetting in March alone and another 1.5 million houses going into some type of foreclosure by the end of 2008, possibly bringing the total amount of foreclosures above 2 million, the bottom is not in.....
Didn't know about XHB- seems much more liquid than ITB which I shorted on Friday around 21.50. Will look for a short entry on XHB early this week. Thanks for bringing it to my attention!
here in LA homes are just 12% off their peak prices...still 600$ a sq ft...and evrything is a short sale or foreclosure.So much inventory so few buyers for shoeboxes tha cost 550k+...lots more downside.