I will tell you that when I was on the floor in NYC trading stock-index futures at the NYFE in 1987, we saw an "amazing" lift in the XMI futures from huge discounts to a premium, thereby kicking in buy program City when there was allegedly a program trading halt in force. Now THAT was a conspiracy!!!
I concur. THe interesting thing is that it is not only Labor Department numbers, but lots of different sources. This suggests to me that the responsible persons are indeed above the law. I mean, let's face it. There are a few hundred individuals on this planet who can have anything they want. If they want Kerry to be president, Kerry will be president. If they want all Arabs exterminated, all Arabs will be exterminated. If they want a few trillion dollars, they just have governments raise taxes. And if one of them wants to amuse himself by taking a couple of hundred million out of the treasury futures market, then he can certainly do that any way he pleases. But why would he? If my theory is correct, then the individual(s) getting rich through these illegal activities are mere pawns. Maybe someone is threatening to buy a few hundred tonnes of gold, and the way to get rid of that guy is to give him some inside information and have him busted for it. This would seem more commensurate in the whole scheme of things. But then again, if that hypothetical guy is smart enough to hurt TPTB where it matters (i.e. has the will and the liquidity to buy tonnes of gold), why would he do stupid trades like this? The bottom line is, who cares? All you should care about is your own bottom line. Just be sure not to take anything you read or see on TV at face value. But if you are reading this, you probably wouldn't have believed much of it anyway. I still think it's possible someone with a little money and some decent connections is doing this simply to become even richer. In other words, TPTB have nothing to do with it (except of course they get half of any and all profits made by anyone involved), it is just one raw, stupid, "successful businessman", someone who dropped out of school before third grade, but was so "business savvy" that he made a few million bucks, and now he is trying to find out how far a little money can take him in a world full of employees who can barely read or write, but will do anything for a hundred grand. This "lucky neanderthal" theory is the one explanation that I personally find the most appealing. Let's just hope it goes to trial. I will happily miss Tom and Jerry, Stargate, and even Star Trek if they show that guy on a (so-called) news channel.
Is it possible that some institutions get some info about the report and then put the pieces together with their own economist's research ?
Good point. I also saw the US index futs go right around 5 minutes early and GBL at some point closer to 8:30 but definetly before. My clock is accurate. I have no info on the size that traded. Maybe others do - it was a lot in bonds. I read somewhere that on Fed day the press may go to a room at the Treasury and await one authorized phone call with the decision. Maybe the press should be moved over to the Hoover Bldg. in the future. Geo.
That's really unlikely, otherwise they'd be able to come up with more accurate estimates of the payroll numbers, but they're always off by large amounts. Either way, lets say that does happen. Why would they wait until a couple minutes before the report to sell? There is really very little liquidity a few minutes before the release. Why not sell hours or days before when they can sell whatever size they want without moving the market? Then at the release, the can just cover their shorts.
Yes maybe but at least he was entertaining and you could laugh at him Clinton ended 2 Wars !!! Bush, well you tell me. Remember I'm a Canadian I couldn't tell the difference between a Democrat and a Republican, so I have no political bias's. I can only go by the individual.
I made the mistake of thinking the 8:26 move was a juke, having seen it so many times before. Just fade the media bait, too -- weak numbers were talked up this round. WRONG!
was the news story on Friday leaked? there's some contriversy on this issue. seems like a number of floor traders in the CME/CBOT pits were burned really bad over their positions being on the wrong side of the markets/news on labor..... oh, well.... see my last commercial, "WE GOT THE NOC list."