"The price action itself doesn't lie. Significant size knew ahead of time what side of the market to be on up to 6 minutes ahead. Answer: Because they knew it wasn't a 50:50 anymore." ___ That's not true. Hunger for market risk is at an all time high. Due to the world events of late traders are edgy. Inverstors are nervous. The masses are set to make panic/manic overreaction trades more now than ever. Speculators/traders/investors/gamblers/the masses NEED better returns. Two things: 1) This was NOT a 50/50 proposition WAY before the 8:28AM ET/8:30AM ET news announcement. Most likely the numbers were going to come out better. I traded nothing but short positions ever since EUR/USD hit bottom at 1.2050 and remained short trading the rest of the week, even as the market climbed to the 300 point level above that floor - which bull move I called days prior (you can see my friggen gamalruach post in the Forex forum). 2) This was a GREAT trade to take a speculative position on. Based on the chart move after the fact, obviously HUGE money was involved but it does NOT automatically mean crime was involved. Relax! Sam
CBOT YM Time & Sales http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1792,00.html Interesting how the mind may be playing tricks. The YM was a much more gradual price ascent than I might recall it to you if asked. On the other hand, the ZN data: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1280,00.html I didnt see any T & S at CME or Eurex sites Geo.
Yes!! I was looking at ZB Time and Sales this morning. No one seems to notice that after the initial 25 tick break in ZN there was a subsequant 18 tick rally into the teeth of the release. What I think happened is in a thin, jittery pre key data market, competing forces were getting in and out. Nothing sinister.
I don't know why you won't face the obvious. Serious action (in the correct direction) in Bonds and ES several minutes before the report means someone knew something. My guess is that Reuters got the report early from one of the big players that was making moves before 8:30. Makes Reuters look like the premier news service. I understand your point, but you make yourself sound like one of those guys that actually believes that NYSE regulations are enforced. Insider trading is huge, thats how the rich stay rich, thats how pompous I-Banks with their sheltered Ivy league pricks manage to make the returns they do. That's how specialists trade, front run and take positions and manage to make millions of dollars. That's how NYSE can afford to pay such luxurious compensation packages. It's a fact, and I, for one, totally accept that insider trading and abuses exist, have existed and will exist. I would take advantage of insider information in a second but not to that extreme degree. BUT: This Friday's actions were just out of whack. As with any abuse, there is a limit and once it becomes that blatantly obvious, it is a bad sign for anybody trying to trade/invest with hard work, intelligence and skill. Now the real question is whether anything is going to be done about such obvious insider trading. If nothing is done, it is just a signal for anyone that does not have access to inside info to look for other markets. Just like when MMs/specialists pull obvious abuses on traders and then the traders try to complain. Nothing is ever done and basically what NYSE/Naz/SEC is trying to tell you is "go screw yourself, we do not want your business", even though a completely different picture is painted with their pretend ideals & regulations. But that is small potatoes comparing to a highly awaited economic report. Think of what this says to Joe investor and to the American public.
Quote from Cutten: - Time to load up on Reuters puts? - If they were in league with the crooks, they could get well and truly Spitzered. - Also, whoever did this - That Dynergy exec got over 20 years without parole recently, - for a bog standard corporate fraud - more than some axe murderers - gang rapists. - If these guys get caught - an indelible paper trail - they could be looking at a decade or more inside. - This is especially strange, - that Goldman guy who leaked the Treasury's decision to cease 30 year bond sales got jailed recently. - Don't these guys read the news? ___ Oh geesh, stop already! You think Reuters/staff is going to risk getting BAGGED by the FEDs over a lousy news cast?? LMAO, Sam
"It's enough to make some look away from US markets." Or maybe it's enough to make some look away from the lunatic posters on ET!
MrJohnGalt: I'm sure you're a nice guy with good intentions but you're WRONG about that. Gov intervention make some of the best trades (to trade against)! gsr
Good point, Gringo. Point being, traders need to work on their trade structure. If a single news cast makes or breaks them then they still are not getting the deeper points to trading. Sure, I was on the right side of the 170 point EUR/USD spike down (short) trade, but it would have been just as fine with me to be long on the trade as well. Yes, I made money on the spike down, but would be able to make money on the spike down had I been long as well. Success is not embedded in news stories - it is in how you trade. Sam