Holy sh*t!

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from qazwsxedc:

Ah. Not being on a Reuters feed I didn't know that. Right, in that case it does reek of early release of embargoed numbers. Hm. Maybe Reuters *is* worth the money.
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So this announcement on Reuters WAS on a subscription news feed, and NOT available to the masses at Reuter's release time??

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from rjlund:

You didn't even have to pay for. It was on their free, public homepage for anyone to lucky enough to have hit their site between 8:28 and 8:29:59. How many people will be checking Reuters immediately before the next report comes out? As if they're gonna let that happen again.

This wasn't some templated article. It had EXACT numbers two minutes BEFORE the report was released.
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rjlund: Are you are SURE about this?? Can you pls post your screen capture?

I always though AP news was the fastest most up to date news source.

Isn't there an actual .gov site that released the figures even earlier than the news/masses got it?

This just happened on the ECB site regarding their interest rate cut. Their site posted the news/announcement WAY before anything in the mass news came out (within a minute or two).

Sam

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from Kicking:

From CBS Marketwatch:

"The sharp drop in the bond market began several minutes before the 8:30 a.m. release time, Bloomberg reported. Labor Department officials said they have noticed speculative activity ahead of previous payroll reports, but promised to look into whether the data was selectively released earlier. "

They promised to look into whether the data was selectively released earlier?!!!

what the hell does that mean, if there is even a remote possibility that someone is given the info before the official release this is an outrage. I think we need a serious inquiry into this. I don't like when some people don't play by the rules. It's like the Michigan survey what a f*cking joke , Ibanks had it 2 weeks in advance!
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Kicking: I also account the MS of no account. However, last time it moved EUR/USD 150 points upon the figures announcement.

gsr

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from Cutten:

I bought some bunds at 114.31 and 114.27 before the report. I assumed the market was simply triggering some big stops, or that the report was out to "insiders" and their selling had triggered stops. It then ramped massively and I sold at 115.04 and 115.09 before 14:30, only 17-28 seconds after getting filled on my bids. I only had a small position on, but was crapping my pants for a moment or two, as the market was going 10-20 ticks at a time, with 5-15 tick gaps between the bid-offer spread. That was the craziest Bund trading I've seen, including the LTCM panic.

The news was released 2 mins early by Reuters. All quote providers get the data early, but they embargo it until the time the report is meant to get published. Reuters from some reason released it beforehand.
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Cutten: You know, this move in bonds//EUR/USD doesn't just mean the news was "leaked."

As Cutten indicates, stop loss triggers could have been hit as well as limit orders (short) as well as purely speculative money just BOMBING the markets prior to the actual news. This WAS a highly anticipated news annoucement.

Also, perhaps the masses just joined in gang style as soon as the price move was perceived, greatly increasing it suddenly.

Besides, there ARE a certain amount of players who may just smack down a hundred million dollar trade(s) based on nothing but chance that it MAY go into their favor.

Besides, others besides myself, due to articles published days before the actual announcement, had advanced indications that the job numbers would be better due to the So Cal (where I live) grocery markets strike ending / warmer weather boosting construction numbers.

Maybe the move was all just a massive gamblers/speculators/mass panic/probability money cumulative bets/trades/positioning based on *most likely scenario* - that paid off - prior to 8:30AM ET

Mine sure did - all my trades were closed in profit and I was flat for the weekend at 8:28 (and 10 seconds) AM ET before the announcement hit, nor have I even read the numbers yet.

The BOJ Conspiracy Theory

Furthermore, do any of us now for sure that there was not just a single huge trade (5, 10, 20 billion?) that was simply placed at 8:28AM ET?

Who could make that kind of trade/move in both the bond and fx markets?

Bank of Japan.

It seems they have been a little more active in the markets lately. And they would have that kind of fire power easy.

Sam

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from m22au:

Why the news feeds have to have the "news" before it is released officially is beyond me.

It would make it a worthwhile career to be a journalist for one of them, and just trade of the data before it is released, be it 8:30 or 8:28.
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"It would make it a worthwhile career to be a journalist."

Yeah, a well-timed email to the right person could also be worthwhile. ha!
s

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from waggie945:

Reuter's states that they had the "time-stamp" wrong on their website.

Hmmmmm . . .
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waggie945: I am making my way through this thread and posting replies on a few posts, so I may have replicated an already posted inquiry later down the string, however...

where the hell does Reuters state that, Waggie?

waggie945 · Apr 3, 2004

You guys are killing me with all of these statements about Big Trades at 8:28 or 8:29AM !!!

Aside from the issue of whether or not the numbers were "leaked" the point that many of you have missed is that NOTHING is trading just before the Unemployment Numbers are released . . . it is a market that is incredibly "thin" and trades on air just before the numbers are released, LET ALONE THE FACT that when the numbers are indeed released, the market vacuums on very little volume to price levels where actual trading takes place. Locals aren't stupid. They aren't gonna stand in front of a freight-train nor will they "roll the dice" unless they get a tremendous edge.

Just my 2 cents.

easyguru · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from Saham:

"It would make it a worthwhile career to be a journalist."

Yeah, a well-timed email to the right person could also be worthwhile. ha!
s
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Somebody tried it R. Foster Winans. He was the WSJ Heard on The Street columnist. He spent time in jail. It was the biggest story in 1983.

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from Lobster:

I agree. This time it was so obvious. I mean those people obviously have no idea about trading, otherwise they would have disguised it a little better. Also, they are either not the brightest (otherwise they would have hired someone who could have entered the trades for them in a more subtle way), or they are confident that there WILL NOT be a criminal case.

At least this gives us the opportunity to know once and for all if there is anyone of consequence who is not in bed with these particular crooks. If there is no criminal case, then there will be no doubt in my mind. Every chimp who has been trading for a couple of years knows enough to find this activity more than suspicious, and it's not like the money that goes through ECBOT is anonymous. Sure you might not get the real crook right away, but if you are a regulator who has not been bought, you start by charging whoever appears to have profited from this crime and see what that person comes up with in his defense.

By the way, come to think of it, there HAS also been some more covert selling activity in ZB over the last couple of days. I first noticed it early Thursday morning. Like I said, it was more subtle than the barbarians who sold today at 8:28, but it nevertheless appeared rather suspicious. Did anyone else with intimate knowledge of how ZB and ZN have been moving these months notice it? It is also possible that this more subtle activity was NOT caused by illegal inside information. I am sure there are plenty of organizations out there who felt the need to hedge for today's number, and they most likely DO have traders who know what they are doing and try to cover their tracks as best they can. Even if you're not doing anything illegal, why would you want the world to know how many billions worth of treasury futures you are selling?

Also, whoever is behind today's illegal activity, this is still nothing compared to what's really going on. Don't be angry at these crooks. If you need someone to blame for your misery, look at those who have the blessing of the law. (Hint: This a$$ wipe is legal tender for all debts, public and private) The trades at 8:28 might have cost you a few thousand bucks. TPTB are costing you half your life. Take a look at your 1040 to see part of the proof. Then factor in sales tax and inflation, and there won't be many of us who don't pay our masters at least half of their earnings. This is how it has always been all over the world, well almost always. The Americans tried to break away from the British empire, and for about a century it looked like they were going to succeed. That was, of course, before the Frederal Reserve Act.
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"today's illegal activity?"

There's no illegal activity.

Stop being a Screaming Mimi, erm, Screaming Lobster...

Sam

Saham · Apr 3, 2004

Quote from BKuerbs:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4740000

WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is looking into market activity around the time of the release of Friday's U.S. March jobs data and is talking to other federal regulators, a spokesman said.
"I think it's accurate to say we are looking into it and talking to other parties that would have an interest in making sure that something didn't happen that was inappropriate," Alan Sobba, the CFTC's director of external affairs, told Reuters.

Sobba said the CFTC was gathering facts and talking to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department but gave no further details.

The move came after the Labor Department said it had launched an internal review after speculation that violent swings in financial markets were caused by early release of vital employment data.

The Labor Department stressed it did not believe a leak had occurred.

Some analysts are convinced the surprisingly robust March payrolls report was leaked before its official 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT) embargo, causing wild spikes in financial flows about two minutes before the official release time.
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grrrrrrrr...

Two things:

1) "after speculation that violent swings in financial markets were caused by early release of vital employment data. "

This is SO much bullshit because it indicates that there would NOT have been a "violent swing" had the news hit the masses all at one time.

Nonsense! Could you imagine the price move swing had all the world gotten the same info at the exact same time??

2) "Some analysts are convinced the surprisingly robust March payrolls report was leaked before its official 8:30 a.m. "

"Some analysts???" Give me a break! Analysts have their HEADS UP THEIR ASSES! They know NOTHING!

They are the biggest screaming mimis around! Attribute nothing about the reality of this to what analysts say.

Sam