I've noticed a few new holes in your holy grail this time. 1) You still aren't protected from major economic events. The market will often continue its trend after an economic release or disaster (as you noted), but there's absolutely no guarantee. Certain products are very finicky and can turn on a dime. Your 'holy grail' won't work on all products. 2) You aren't protected from the general turn in the market. Eventually, even the biggest bull or bear markets turn around. At that point, your own read of the "strength" of the move becomes very important. And at that point, it's no longer the charts... it's your own brain interpreting the charts that becomes the holy grail. 3) You are now introducing money management and stoplosses to handle drawdowns. I wholeheartedly agree with the approach, but it again indicates that your charts aren't infallible by any means. They will be wrong at times and you'll need to handle it. I'm not going to claim that the way you create your charts is superior or inferior. I simply don't know. However, I will say that it is far from the holy grail. Your charts require interpretation and that brings the holy grail back to...
1) You are half right. Even though it has worked up to this point, without fail, after reviewing 80 years of data and in real-time for 15 years on over 1000 symbols, there is no guarantee it will continue to work. It does work on all tradable instruments though. 2) How I read the charts isn't reliant on "Trend" though I have defined "Trend" to the point a computer reads it flawlessly on the charts. I am human and capable of error. My read of the charts is confirmed by the computer which can read the natural oscillations on a continuing basis over longer periods or chart increments making it more efficient so I rely on it. 3) I already mentioned money management and stops both which are imperative to successful trading. The natural charts are never wrong. The stops and money management are for when I manually apply human emotion to my trading (trying to inject my opinion to a trade) or for when the charts enter into periods of Consolidation. During periods of Consolidation the natural charts read it instantly but there is no way to know the chart will go into consolidation until after you enter into the trade. The stop protects your trade if that occurs. The natural chart then tells you when it is safe to re-enter a trade on that chart. To conclude, my charts are programmable and are not open to interpretation. You MAY interpret the chart but your accuracy will be less accurate than simply reading the chart. Screen time teaches you this. A HOLY GRAIL in trading is the success YOU achieve with YOUR PROVEN system. What is an edge to me might not be an edge to someone else. Ever trader MUST put in the effort to verify a consistently profitable method for themselves and should NEVER trust anyone blindly. Always do your due diligence to insure you success. THERE ARE NO SHORTCUTS!!
one more fly thinking he found illumination. Sorry, Icarus, but your wings will melt if you get too close to the light bulb.
"programmable and are not open to interpretation." Hi Prof, I never use Price/Time Charts- Indicators, or in your case Price/Volume Charts yet both our market logic appears to be very similar! When I was young I was a very good Snooker player (made a lot of money) what you would call a Pool Shark. It was nothing to train for 10-12-14 hours in a session as a consequence when I was playing for money or in tournaments often I would find myself in a trance like state yet fully alert (similar to an out of body experience) at these times I didn't have to think about the state of the balls because I knew instinctively what was required for me to take the frame, I could see into the heart of the game. Likewise, to know how to win at this game you need to look into the soul of the market, if you find a way to do this, you will quickly realize that the market rarely if ever lies. Prof uses Price/Volume charts, I use an Exel spreadsheet to get a glimce of the markets soul(this tells me when to enter or exit, the market is the stop), you may need something else, who knows, but the one thing that I do know is that you won't have a clue what we're talking about until you do in fact get it! Sounds circular but there it is! Best Regards Johno
Well stated. I love pool but am not at the caliber you are. Anything worth while takes practice. The old saying of "practice makes perfect" is way off base. It should be stated that "Perfect Practice Makes Perfect". Anyone can practice something incorrectly. The market constantly oscillates. So that being the case, learn to read those oscillations (direction & strength) and the only oscillations that are perfect are the ones that do not contain the variable aspect of time, transactions or range.
Here is an example with the ES chart for today, up until just before noon EDT. I only trade till lunch in the Summer. The price bars are MultiCharts Constant Volume/Share Bars, not time transaction or range based. The two black horizontal lines indicate extreme oscillation top and bottom levels. The indicator at the bottom is the Ergodic (ERG) and split into two parts (the indicator itself (blue/red line) and the histogram (blue/cyan) or slope of the ERG). The range of this indicator is normally plus or minus 100 and you will almost never see it at those levels making this a range-less indicator. Unlike the Stochastic or MACD that is constantly dead-heading on the top or bottom of its range. All my trading decisions come from the oscillations of the ERG and verified by price making comparable HH's, HL's, LL's or LH's. The Histogram shows you the breakdown in strength directly before the ERG oscillates (Decision Points). You can even use an incrementally larger increment chart to see how the longer term strength is working either with you are against you in the trade. It isn't complicated, it just takes screen time to prove to yourself it is consistent and to build your confidence to trade it. You can also integrate it into what you are already finding consistent in your current trading tool kit.
I totally agree your statement, Johno. So many people just want someone to tell them what to buy/sell because they think the next guy knows more than thay do. Unfortunately they then never get a feel for what they are trading or the markets behavior. They go into a position and stay in while everything is going against them, and can't even see the obvious. Hence, the crash of the last 8 months, while over 95% of all stocks were heading down, the poor mutual fund holders stayed long and watched their account values get cut in half. Ed
The old goat that publishes this bs has never placed a live trade in his life. You forgot to post his 0 loss cycle system results. Where he throws out some BS line and then says the market can go inverse or it may follow the line.
Isn't it obvious? You buy at the bottom of the chart and sell/go short at the top. Now all you have to do is simply go back in time and execute the trades. ha. Cheers! Ed