Looks like a quarterly chart (or in that neighborhood). How many gold contracts are traded . . . exactly . . . each quarter?
Proflogic, Perhaps the words âintolerable drawdownsâ was a bit too harsh. Even a system that was caught like a deer in headlights during 9/11 shouldnât have an âintolerableâ drawdown, just a very large one. Proper money management ensures that you stay in the game and let your edge accumulate P&L over time. The problem Iâm having with what youâre saying is that essentially you are saying that you can predict the future by reading a chart sans time, transactions, and range. So, on 9/10, did you make a report to the government that you suspect a large disaster of some sort that would send stock markets straight down? I would guess you didnât. Why not? I would also guess that other than seeing a general trend downwards in the S&P500 before that time, you had no way of predicting a large crash on 9/11. There were only a handful of people in the world who could and most of them hated our financial system. I also find your claim about farm reports to be quite dubious, though not impossible. Sadly, Iâve never really looked at Ags, but it is possible that many of the large players in Ags already know much of what is contained in the farm reports. Therefore, it is conceivable that they will start taking on positions before the farm report comes out and essentially âtip their handâ by moving the market in the direction they know it will go due to the report. At which point, it will show up in the charts before the reports and you can beat other traders to the punch by following price action. Still, that would leave you behind the curve compared to some of those large farmers that you may be speaking to. Another problem Iâm having with what you say is that I have no idea who you are. Iâm just guessing here, but I doubt youâre a billionaire. Yet, other guys have become billionaires through the markets. From my understanding of their approaches, they have absolutely nothing in common with what you are claiming. So, either you are a very secretive billionaire, a multimillionaire who decided he had enough money already and retired, or your system is not exactly the holy grail. Going on results and my best guess of who you are, there are better systems out there. Thatâs not to say that your ideas are merit-less. I will probably look into them further, but I can envision many instances where your charts are blind or will fail and you will take unnecessary hits if you get too caught up in them.
Support levels were breached 4 days prior to 911 in all the Indices. Even the lemming traders were short on 911. It wasn't anything out of the ordinary, it was simply a continuation of the current long term pullback in the indices t that specific time. Anyone caught long the indices on 911 just simply can't read price. There was a large group of us trading online together and our long term Swing trades all triggered short in mid August. Even our short term positions were short going into that Tuesday. The London bombing happened during our pre-market and after the close of the London trading day. All of the Indices were riding a hard Bull Trend. The bombing caused a sharp pullback but not one that took out our Swing Trade stops. By Market open we were close to break even and by the close of our trading day we were making new highs in all indices. You don't predict the future, no one can. You simply read your chart for direction and strength and even during times of what you call "surprise" the market will move in the direction it was going in the first place based on its oscillation direction and strength. I've researched price during all natural disasters from the 1930's till current and not one single time did a "surprise" in the news create a price move that was counter to a natural chart's direction and strength. As far as the Ag's go, I am anything but a large player. I simply can read a chart for direction and strength. And let me tell you that the Big AG (corporate traders like Con Agra & Monsanto) are clueless. The USDA is even worse. As I stated earlier, I am no one you would ever be familiar with so anything I say is worthless. On that note "IF" what I am say is true and verifiable (through your own testing) would it be worth you using it? That is a pretty stupid question, isn't it. I've been on this site for over 5 years saying the exact same thing. Some of the individuals here had the testicles to test it and ALL of them that tested it correctly came back and said that they found value in the charts. The ONLY people that tell me I'm full of shit are the individuals with no testicles to test it themselves. I'm not saying that you will never have losing trades using natural charts. Hell, I have losing trades every week. But I can see potential neutral strength of a particular move before I enter into a trade to tell me that I will most likely NOT take out my target but still have the potential to profit by a small bit. But allow me to say in all honesty that NONE of the trades you will ever take using natural chart will ever give you a large loss IF you follow strict rules regarding taking your stops off your current entry oscillations. It is an impossibility. To me that is the strictest form of money management there is. Any without money management you are totally lost.
I'll bet that if you put together many of the ideas on this thread that you will have a successful trading system that adapts.
the Real Triad of Holy Grail.............. to get anything one wants! Desire/Want, Self Belief and Focus.
You've nailed it! Just a hint in finding what information is nesessary - less is more! The more complex an opinion is the more likely you will end up simply being baffeled by bulls-it. Often, but not always, the techniques derided the most, are what you need to develop a successful approach! Good luck in your search. Johno
Hans Hannula's material is waaaay out there in terms of complexity. My head hurts just thinking about it. Then again, Hans is....shall we say, different himself.