They continue to do it to us mere mortals....so obviousley someone is buying that illiquid penny stock enough for it to work. (is illiquid a word or just an anonymous character on ET? )
hmm... to scam the scammer interesting I am sure there is a way but I personally wouldn't touch penny stock with a 1 mile pole. but lo and behold, I met a guy who specialized in cashing in on penny stocks by diversifying in some strange way, so go and figure, he did buy a bright yellow corvette, so I don't think he was lying to me.
ok thanks I can pm you my email too if you wish. I love to look at anothers work, thanks for sharing. shhh. Don't tell the aliens BTW Electric Savant I will PM you my work on free will as soon as I get to my recreational computer.
Yes, that could work. But, it needn't be that difficult. Humans are capable of doing this as well with far less than 5000 IQ. It takes talent, sure. Experience, practice. I have been developing myself this way. Tuning into a market. It will sound crazy to a lot of guys, but results speak for themselves. I come from a poker theory background. In poker, one begins to notice patterns in human thought, and how these patterns become amplified in groups or crowds. Heck, if a guy sits at poker table for hours on end, not taking part in conversation, not watching the televisions, rather watching the players and how their moods shift back and forth in quite predictable ways. One begins to notice definite patterns in mood and emotion and how those patterns work on a guy to form the logic or whim the guy will use to make decisions. I can get to the point, sometimes, where I know what a guy will do before he even knows he wants to do it. And all despite the randomness of the next card. Recently, I've focused on the Index and Oil markets, to a lesser extent, silver. I'm running better than 90% on major tops and bottoms across all the markets I follow, over 70% on the medium moves. Oil and Indexes are the easiest, in those, I'm at 100% over the last six months. Nobody will believe this, but I've got proof. Such emotional markets. All the guys trading them are caught up in this emotion and seem unable to notice how patterned it all is, how predictable. Price is not always predictable, but this is a people game, and people are. I wasn't the first guy to see "short" in oil. But, I don't think very many switched from long thinking to short thinking the very day oil hit it's all time high. I was able to by using this method. 15 cents off the $15 high in silver futures, 18 cents off the following low. Better than a dozen tops and bottoms in the Index futures. Truly, I can't say this will continue working. But, I'm becoming not suprised at being right the market over and over again. It took quite a bit of time to learn this, quite a bit of stubborness being told by everyone it wasn't possible and pressing on despite. I'm almost to the point where I'm ready. I've felt for years, if there ever was to be a Holy Grail, it would be a person, not a machine. Market is a people game, and machines can't judge people. There was a Holy Grail in another people game. His name was Stu Ungar and he played poker. So, it is possible. After years of being "bashed" around over this, I've learned to mostly ignore the critics, so those responses to this will be ignored. If anyone is interested in seeing the proof, I am willing to provide it. Not looking to sell anything. Not looking to teach anyone. Speculation will become my career when I am ready. Almost there.
"IMO you just cant make some mathematical formula to predict the randomness of millions of people, with a million different reasons for doing what they do." That's said quite often, quite often said without thinking it thru. One does not need to predict every individual, ONLY the net aggregate of the combination of their decisions. They all come together in Market, and only the net moves price.
I am sure it works to the point but, like all beginners, people think something works until real money shows otherwise
It has taken nearly 10 years and giving up almost everything else to learn this. Doctors and lawyers put in 8+ years of constant study. Paychecks in this game are so much bigger, 10 years ain't to much time to devote to education. Half a lifetime isn't too much time. But, it never was for money. Just a passion for understanding and love of the game. Guys who only see money aren't going to understand. Doyle Brunson still plays poker, he'd understand.
Great answers so far (well, maybe a couple, LOL). ' No matter how smart "they" are, the problem is that we mere mortals are too unpredictable. Earnings beat street by 4 cents, stock tumbles, earnings under estimates, but forecast rosy, stock goes up or up and down, or just down....not enough "rationality" in our responses to events. Sure, some things can be "predicted" like a Fed Speak of some sort, on interest rates. We always "ladder" with bids and offers, and most often both sides get hit before the speach is over. IMO, Don