Holy grail, does exist, but here is why we don’t have it

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by FutTrd, Sep 1, 2006.

  1. The "Other 5%" will never all take the other side of the trade for a variety of reasons any of which are "obvious" to individuals that have been in this environment for any extended period of time.

    As far as your statement about the "grail", under the common definition I agree, a "grail" system would never be wrong but that doesn't mean that particular system, "the one that is never wrong" wouldn't occasionally produce a losing trade.

    Just because a system produces a losing trade . . . occasionally, that doesn't mean the decision that triggered that trade was wrong. Now before you or anyone else goes off the deep end . . . think about that statement and how the real market environment could produce a situation that could occur in. This is not so "obvious". This will require some thought.
     
    #11     Sep 1, 2006
  2. Every creature with 50+ IQ would know very well that a creature of 5,000 IQ doesn't like trading at all, for simply too boring. :D
     
    #12     Sep 1, 2006
  3. The trading forum breaks more and more bounds of logic daily, what am I going to do with you guys lol :p
     
    #13     Sep 1, 2006
  4. Your little green alien would either end up like the guy who invented the motor car engine that runs on water or get bought out by UBS for $300 million like they did a while back to that genius thinktank that came up with "a good trading system". Either way, trader alien ain't gonna trade it...
     
    #14     Sep 1, 2006
  5. What you are talking about would be a bit like running a true physics simulation with an exact copy of the position, velocity, and everything else of every particle and energy in the universe. Perhaps you could even filter out anything outside our solar system. You get this simulation running using the current state of the world and you let it run at an increased pace. Pretty soon you get to see what happens in the market (and everywhere else) the next day in your simulation, and you can act on this data. Acting on the data will, of course, change the data. So you will need to rerun this simulation every time you act.

    This all assumes a sort of predestination based on the underlying particles in your brain and everywhere else. It assumes a model of the universe as a giant pool table where you can predict what will happen. It also assumes a person's "free will" is merely an illusion created by a very complex piece of the brain with many, many billiard balls bouncing off each other.

    -Raystonn
     
    #15     Sep 1, 2006
  6. FutTrd,

    Isn't it give and take? The illusion of profitability is to be able to take the losses and the wins and be net positive. So accuracy requires losing, thus the illusion.

    IMHO the key might be to concentrate on the losses minimizing the amount of loss, so when the win appears it will be effective enough to net positive on the string. The reason to concentrate on the losses, you are beginning with the net loss at the onset of your entry.

    But of course you did say 95% ACCURACY...not WIN RATE. So my statements fit in with your thread.

    By removing yourself the way you have in this thread, could just be another way for you to break out of the box and give you the hope of the Holy Grail.

    Mathematics is fixed. No lies. Discovery is reachable. Change is definable. I believe the key for the little green men lies in the "change" compared to the condition. But what do I know, I am fair skinned :)

    Michael B.
     
    #16     Sep 1, 2006
  7. In the practical world of trading, it is not necessary to get more data than you need to be extremely successful.

    The acheivable goal, on the otherhand, relates to knowing when you have a "sufficient" supply of data sets to successfuly use a strategy that that keeps you in a position to take out of the market what is offered.

    The cornerstone of every high peformance (effective and efficient) trader is to be on the right side of the market at all times.

    When the trader is switching sides he, concurrently, takes profits.

    There is no predicting involved nor are there any probabilities with respect to being on the right side of the market. As Eckhardt concluded there are "rights" involved in the maths of dealing with the markets.

    He saw that using as little data as posible was important (he went overboard, though) and the data had a specific form that he call "right". He meant by this, as any smart alein can see and Cash can't) that good data was either there or not there. It was "right" when it was there. This is a Boolean concept and it is the basis of almost all of computer operations and performance. Better computers do this stuff very fast.

    For a beginner to stay on the right side of the market is not possible. For an intermediate to stay on the right side of the market is not possible either. Aliens can stay on the right side of he market, however. They "know" to stay there and they also know when to change sides ahead of time and they act to change sides when the time is right according to WHEN THE MARKET COMES UP WITH A DATA SET FILLED WITH ALL "RIGHTS".

    An expert has all of this down cold and he does it all of the time during the day. Anyone can fill in a log of the actions required during the day to always be on the right side of the market. All that is needed is the correct format on the log's column's and rows.

    Aliens can make up logs very easily simply because they can figure out what to put in as headers for the columns. They would arrange the columns so that a minimum of eye movements are required to fill in the logs. The combinations of entries repeat over and over.

    Personally I fill in my log with several rows in between the next four or five events that will be coming up ahead of time. Where I fill such info in is in the middle of the sheet just to the right of the data collection columns. That way I know ahead of time what is going to be coming up. I especially write in ahead of time the items where I will be changing sides(I take profits here).

    I have another column next to this where I put in my expected profit level (I use four levels) for that time of day of taking profits.

    I know on page one of the log that I will have banked the then existing H-L of the day and that I will be so many bars into the 81 bar day.

    On page two I start making more than the H-L of the day and the level of profits has changed to the second best level maybe.

    Any alien hanging with me would be deciding to set up a business to give my notes to others as soon as I write them. So do I. I use skype for this or gotomeeting or I would use the ET chat if some people weren't there all the time. Sometimes I record a narrative or video if there is something I want to give to others.

    The day comes to an end on page 5 og the log sheets. I also have other pages for perodic debriefing and I print charts of parts of the day. I wind up with about 20 pages and for income I do about 3 times the H-L (which has usually gotten larger than it was on page one)

    The strategy to stay on the right side of the market results in 20 to 40 actions a day. The data sets involve 13 items total. 7 items on YM and 6 on ES. The YM does what the ES does before the ES does it so I just trade the ES after I see it happen on the YM.

    What is "right" (there or not there more or less) for me is (from left to right): Channel, Formation, Volume (one of five levels) Gaussian, Fast STOCH (5,2,3), Slow STOCH (5,14,3) and MACD (5,13,6). that was for YM. For ES I do not have a Gaussian. There is a column for stretch/squeeze comparison between the indu and the ym (sqeeze means a short will start in 30 seconds and thretch will start a long in 30 seconds.

    All my volume bars have bouncing balls on them so I know that where the ball is is where the bar will end; the gap allows me to see the amount of any surge during the bar.

    I also run tick charts with volume and the DOM on five levels as a fine detail to eek out he final ticks of each move after I have been told that the move is ending.

    The log records the trades on the near right and at full right I tab the # of contracts and points per contract and gross points and gross cumulative points. If I have and odd number of contracts (25) running then I do not do the cumm points until I have lulls in the routine of monitoring, analysis, decision making and taking action. I do about 20 pages a day for the three ring binder. All aliens need three ring binders, I think.

    I mentor a lot and usually a person watching me trade gets tired. Since I am 73 and experienced, I do not expect people to keep up with me for a whole day. Usually when I narrate for them I keep a few minutes ahead which allows them to keep focussed, etc. Most of the time they punch the keys for trades and annotate the charts (see channel and formation columns.) I have bad arthritis.

    There are a lot of aliens on ET but they mostly aren't very bright and they appear to be too oyung, still, to start learning about anything. They have large mouths and shut eyes.
     
    #17     Sep 1, 2006
  8. Very good! Grob ... especially the part about ES does what YM does but after YM does it.
     
    #18     Sep 1, 2006
  9. Joab

    Joab

    This is a ridiculous thread .... everyone knows aliens started and own the NYSE. :D :D :D
     
    #19     Sep 1, 2006
  10. This seems a little like the mothership calling the kettle black...

    :)

    cj...

    __________________
    HAVE STOP - WILL TRADE

    If You Have The Vision We Have The Code
     
    #20     Sep 1, 2006