You may have missed my post. Starting Monday our office prints will be posted in the P/L. Lets hope you win and have a great method to share. The chat room in ET is kinda full of comments that are not related to anything. If you want to see what I do and when, you might want to check it out on one of the real time videos. I don't think you can be part of the recording group because of your orientation.
Cayce warns: "Portions of the Earth are going to be wiped away in the coming years. I feel very sure of that. The Earth changes will start in the final years before the new Millennium, and the sea will cover the western part of our nation." - WRONG. He predicted that in 1958 the U.S. would discover some sort of death ray used on Atlantis. - WRONG. China will be converted to Christianity by 1968. - WRONG. * I'm sure he was an excellent trader, though.
Lol. Yeah, some of his predictions are flat out wrong. I'm more leaning towards how he diagnosed illness, tho. There he wasn't wrong very often (if ever?). If one treats Market as a whole organism, perhaps a universe unto itself thru which traders interact, I wonder if it couldn't be diagnosed in the same method. Not to find a state of sickness or health. Just to get into their heads for a while, see things thru their eyes, feel how they feel, think like they think. For both sides. Bull and bear. Then, just wait for something to happen, or for something not to happen. If one can actually get into their heads, it's easy to know what they're going to do and when. Gauge each side. Watch them for a while. Get that read warmed up and practiced. Notice everything that happens or doesn't with price. The news, eh, not so much, only the important stuff, headlines and what the traders are talking about. Price is the important thing, as important as the next card in a poker game. Watch that most of all. From there, a good poker player will understand, most others probably not. It gets spooky. You want to tell yourself its just the sum total of all the little bits and peices. Maybe some of it is. Sometimes you just know. Going about as normal, day in day out, same thing over and over again. All of a sudden, it's different. Something sticks out for no reason at all. Like a red flag right in the corner of the eye. Then its gone. Things are back to normal again. If your not paying attention, its like it never happened. If you were... A guy can watch this happening in a poker game like those tournaments on tv. Watch a top player, really really watch. We know the cards in addition to everything else they know. One can see their minds working away, then CLICK they get it. From there, they ignore or pay attention. Watch how many times that CLICK is right. If you want to understand the level of really good poker, watch how many times their opponent does something to interfere and distract the moment the CLICK happens. The opponent sees it, conscious or sub. I've watched the top guys running an amatuer ragged and broke this way. They gotta know they're doing it. Or maybe its just instinct. This sort of thing doesn't work all the time, tho.
Why would you think I want to be part of your monkey show? Your show is geared towards people who pay $5000 for a moving average system and enjoy drinking the monkey piss kool-aid ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kool-Aid) you feed them. You suffer from a severe messianic complex ala Jim Jones ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Jones), you use your monkey gibberish to attract the kool-aid drinking followers because it sounds like you actually know something about trading. You like trading not because of the intellectual challenge the trading business provides, your trading act is setup to feed your messianic complex. In this profession, there is no limit to the number of kool-aid drinkers looking for "rurus" like you. Good luck posting the results of your paper-trading account. Real traders need people like you because you help bring fresh kool-aid drinkers into the markets. Without them I would'nt have a business!! ROTFLMAO!
I read all your posts in this matter and consider what you are saying to be essentially correct. However, I think you are missing one ingridient. Here is my opinion as to what it is: It is not that these people (Cohen Soros Biggest bond/oil trader etc) anticipate what will happen. It is that when a [random event to us] decision happens by a market mover, they initially lose money like the rest of us because they too are trading logical relationships. By it's very nature, the move will be counter intuitive and most likely anti-percentage. Here is where they are far more likely to get it right in the repeated trials that follow - they know when the move is not an anomaly, take the initial loss, and start building a position to the "counterintuitive", or at least take the small loss and use the information from the counter intutive situation to trade something that has not yet corrected. In other words, is this decision unfolding in the market by one or two market movers, an anomaly? Or is it going to be duplicated by other market movers causing a wave of market movers to create a new trend? It is this that seperates the biggest traders from the average traders - they know when an event is a "one-off" fluctuation and stay the course or even add, and when the event is not a ripple but a wave, and the beginning of a trend against their position that can hurt them. No chart can give you this information because charts don't repeat exactly, they rhyme. Only experience in assesing information can tell you when the market is rhyming and when it has changed it's tune. I [believe I] have only mastered the former skill - that of knowing when something is out of kilter. But I am nowhere near mastering the latter of when a move is signaling that the market is changing into a new paradigm, or not. It may be impossible in my position of being a small trader since premium information rarely flows to the small trader. You see, these guys are good not because they are just good, but because they also get the information accurately, promptly, and know how to piece it all together to form what you call intuition. Even if I had the intuition, I would not have the information access that they do. It is a chicken and egg problem. Anyway, adding a little "science" to what you believe is [probably wrongly] "voodoo" [unexplained phenomena.] nitro P.S. Notice that many would be talking "stop loss" as their savior, and that is where their analysis ends. In the case of the big players they are either adding to the position that caused the loss, or taking on a new position in the direction of the loss, usually in a lagged market. A stop loss by itself is a form of ignorance. If you stop loss, that often means that another position is right. Either you add to a position if you truly have information advantage, or you seek the other end of the stick.
"In your poker analogy, what corrersponds to what?" Talking about those times a guy gets a good feel of the strength of another guy's hand, sometimes even the exact cards. A lot of guys just guess and get it right occassionally. But the really good players seem to hit it a lot more often than random. When they're beat, they know more than than random, when the other guy is bluffing, ect. A lot of good players play numbers poker, that's not what this is. This is the next level. It goes quite a bit higher, I'd imagine.
Cayce had some pretty out there ideas. I'm not going to suggest which ones were right or wrong, except for one. The predictions and diagnosing we already have a good idea about. There is one particular idea he had that correlates with some of the stuff I've been looking into in physics. Specifically along the lines Bohm followed. Cayce's ideas on Time pretty accurately mirror some of the suggestions of modern physics. Something along the lines of Time being an abstract that seperates rather than a flow of something. That all things happen simultaneously and Time is the illusion that gives them sequence. Bohm and others suggested it. Cayce suggested there was a way to see thru the illusion. There will be plenty who say, "Cayce was wrong sometimes, so the entire method is useless". Fine for them. I've chosen a different tack. He was right quite a bit of the time. So he had something of value. It could be one way to explain intuition, a connection between now and next where information goes both ways. It may not be what it actually is. Cayce could have flaked this one too. But something is there. Not really spooky, just very interesting. Pretty cool.
Again, I have thought along these lines [I have written on this on ET before, e.g., http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...t=i was just agreeing with you&pagenumber=24. Read my posts starting with that page], and others as well. I don't discuss them on ET much because frankly believing in something without being able to impart that knowledge is sort of a fraud. It feels very much like Mulder in relation to Scully in the X-Files. Only by knowing do you know. However, I will say this: If you lose your perspective [which you seem to be doing] and begin assuming that it is somehow "beyond-current-scientific-understanding" that seperates the great from the average, you better get to the average stage first, say like some of the people on this site that make $200k/year. I gurantee you there is plenty of profit at that level before you have to worry about the likes of Cohen, Soros, etc etc, and reaching for meta-physical explanations for their success. I don't discount that reality, but it may make more sense to ponder the valley than to build a suspension bridge accross it, while ignoring the valley altogether. nitro