Holy grail, does exist, but here is why we don’t have it

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by FutTrd, Sep 1, 2006.

  1. FutTrd


    Okay before someone like Steve46 or Bitstream or Cheese rip this thread to pieces here are my thoughts.

    Imagine an alien race floating in orbit and looking at humans trade stocks futures forex etc. And lets say one of them decides to take a detailed look at the whole thing, would it be really so bizarre that a creature of 5000 IQ would be able to take into account accurately all the news and probability assessment of how people react to news and all the patterns that repeat themselves to any reasonable degree.

    Wouldn’t such a creature be able to come up with system that’s 95% accurate. In my opinion yes that would be possible and 95% accuracy is for all intents and purposes Holy Grail.

    So what I am saying here ladies and Gents, we are simply not smart enough to process all the information and “figure out the holy grail”, but it is there.

    Okay let the name calling and shredding begin. :D
  2. I'll be first in line! :D. First of all, unless these aliens can read minds, it doesn't matter how smart you are. IMO you just cant make some mathematical formula to predict the randomness of millions of people, with a million different reasons for doing what they do.
  3. First, aliens would laugh at our folly.
    Life is much more important than accumulating things.

    Second, you assume that humans are rational beings.

    Third, all the information required is already available. You don't need aliens, with 5000 IQs, you only need to fully understand a market. Just one!
  4. FutTrd


    well the fact is, we traders still make money even though we can't predict randomness of millions of people

    so who is to say some ultra smart alien wouldn't be able to do the same but way better

    and reach 95% accuracy hmm....:confused:
  5. If you put the worlds greatest minds in one room for 5 years, you might get something close.
  6. FutTrd


    what are you saying, that you have 95% accuracy.
  7. I'd like to add, that all of the news, patterns, and all that is shown on a chart made up of many price levels. Until you place an order to buy or sell a stock, it doesn't matter on what you think, or what you know will happen. Only then, when you take the trade will it be shown on the chart, as well as the volume bar.
  8. Dogfish


    And you would call it LTCM :D
  9. I think you're right, and if we were smart enough we would in again make the world even more complex, until we again wouldn't be able to understand it. I think it is a law of nature that any intelligent society will mold it's environment to the extend just short of chaos.
  10. Not if the other 5% had more money and took the other side of the trade.
    Anything less than 100% accurate is no "Grail", just a really good system. The "Grail" is never wrong. Hence, there is no Grail.
    #10     Sep 1, 2006