a new guy can learn a lot about trading floor intricacies just by reading these posts... props to MCurto...
Goldman at it again today. Has sold 15,000 five year notes in the pit across the whole range and has sold 8,000 ten year notes in the pit from 29 to 23, still going in the tens, possibly filled in fives. Hardy Brumfield buying from 29 down to 27, maybe 5000. Looking to gun some stops around 4.15 cash yield.
thanks very interesting. i noticed the selling bursts too in ZNs, some in ZBs, but they still do not go down. these trades are near a semi-obvious multi-week resistance level. who says big guys trade only on fundamentals. personally i would not short here. the upside is not that big either imho. edit: beware the short covering if these levels are broken. i guess blumfield is trying hard to push the market knowing there are a lot of stops just above here. edit 2: voila... stops popped in t-bonds. edit 3: 10 years quiet, watch em breaking 112 soon
Couldn't quiet push them into those stops today. Goldman ended up selling 20,000 five year notes and about 9,000 or so ten year notes (all in the pit, possibly more on screen). This isn't anything to do with the Wal-Mart issuance earlier this week as that rate-lock was already unwound. My guess is either Gross with Pimco or a HUGE Goldman prop trader, most likely the former. Maybe overnight session will see these supposed stops (I hope, still long) around 4.15 yield in cash hit, might depend on stregth of bund, will be interesting. Goldman must have also rolled another 20,000 five years today, previous day did about 30,000 (net seller of the spread thus far).
Sometimes large traders are legging in or out of trades and this type of activity is simply related to hedges - not outrights. GS is a very sophisticated trader and I doubt in a seasonally illiquid time they would attempt to manipulate a market as you're suggesting.
How am I suggesting they are manipulating a market, simply selling into big yield support/price resistance, since when is that manipulation? It has just been my observation they have been big sellers into rallies last few months, maybe its getting short, maybe its getting out of longs, either way they tend to move the market, and all locals care about is movement, end of story. And if its a hedge, then maybe it gives locals something to lean on or lets them leg into some type of spread.