unfortunately, i was way too early shorting the crazy Mar-Apr upmove. i also overleveraged like crazy way to early. by the time the market finally saw its top my account was a total wreck. i still stayed short and managed to recover some of the losses during the last two weeks. today i had several Buy limit orders that flattened me out ~ SPY 112-113. i actually was on the road during the crash, i wish i could have witnessed it in real time! actually, today after i saw nitro's warning about likely1150 breach, i moved my last buy-to-cover orders much lower and went on the road. 2 hours later: boom! easy money!
Damnit, I missed most of the fun! I was in a meeting here in Omaha from 1 to 5PM. ARGH... Oh well, Euro shorts are still looking pretty. I'm holding all of them until the end, or a bounce back above 1.28 stops me out.
So you made money overall? Sounds like you would really benefit from reviewing what happened, and making some changes so that next time you clean up. After all, you were right in spectacular fashion - but being too early and too leveraged hamstrung you. I'd suggest: i) enter later than you would normally do when fading an entrenched strong trend ii) consider using puts instead of outright shorts - much easier to hold on iii) take less risk - much easier to hold on iv) when it turns and your trade is working, be slower to take profits
Cutten, thank you for your tips. overall, i lost a decent chunk of my account by being short through both the uptrend and the downslide (covered the final chunk of shorts only on Thur around SPY 112-113). i would have made money had i scaled in more incrementally, but too much leverage too early really makes it impossible to profit after being wrong early on. i am not too proud admitting i was such a reckless dumbass. i hope typing this out will actually help me be more disciplined with my next big short or long discretionary trade.
Money making in a large way is striclty in the timing of the move, not whats going to happen. Everybody knows the market is overvalued in dot com, but you have to time it right, Thats where most people get it wrong, Timing is the hardest skill to master, its equivalent to having all the cyclinders work exactly at the same time in a car, from the drop of the oil to the stryke of the spark, to the cylinders moving, everything has to be the right timing. Being right in the direction overall won't make you money unless you are positioned at the right size, right time, in the right place without fear.