With the s&p closing @ 1256, let thorn be the first to stand down this market and say that this rally is close to running out of gas. 1265-1270 is a very safe selling range. But I will wait til monday morning to initiate sales.
Mutual & Hedge Funds have no cash? Has it just been small investors selling all the way down since May? This major retracement was probably caused by bearish day-traders shorting stocks right? Not trying to argue, but a lot of Hedge Funds are liquid. Started selling in May, they've been covering here. They have plenty of cash... What they'll do with it is the question. It was a nice bullish 2 day rally. I'm not going to argue that with anybody, but I'm curious if you're predicting "Full Bull" here or not? Next week down where? Monday? Thursday? The buying in the morning followed by selloffs in the afternoon, driving prices below the opens, probably isn't yet over. If anyone feels like going on a nutty buying spree, be very careful here. Should be read: will be sold hard... It's not really down 8 as a norm, but probably down 3 or 4 for every 2 up is more descriptive. What the Bulls (CNBC) want to see is a sideways move for a few days, which creates a consolidation area, followed then by small rallies with very few retracements. What you're witnessing here is DCB. A LOT of traders like to trade the DCB (Dead Cat Bounce), because it is fun and it's a breath of fresh air. But, experience always shows caution when a the ass falls out and bounces right back. Anything can happen. We could rally with out a down day all of next week. We could fall even more all of next week. The point is this, nobody knows but everyone has an opinion. Bulls say new Bull trend, Bears say DCB like it's just a hiccup in the eventual downfall of society and capitalism (slight exaggeration). Smart traders say whatever they want, but they never throw caution to the wind after a rally like this. So you were giddy from the intra-day ranges then? Not for a "full steam ahead" Bull, right?
I could be wrong (much like everyone else) but this is a probability game. I see a nice Candlestick hammer on the SPY / ES (weekly chart). This usually signals a change in the mental make up of the market... at least for the next few week.
check you're stats pal, mutuals have an average cash position of 4.2%, margin interset is ABOVE the previous high in JANUARY 2000, at spoo 1250, as I said b4 at spoo 1334, sold to you!