hmm.no edges in the markets

Discussion in 'Trading' started by chimera, Jul 16, 2013.

  1. You use the .SPX chart to place trades into any other derivative of SP500.

    No.

    Correction: You would have had to use the .SPX chart to trade things like SDS, SSO, SPY, UPRO, SPXU, ES, etc... it's that chart that'll generate the timing for the volume logic gate to open up...but it's too bad that that data isn't available anymore, so this story I've repeatedly emphasized everywhere people have ignored the thread Scottd tried to keep bumping despite my results being reflective to some limited extent of the potential of his methods.

    I can't verify what the results are anymore, having not used Wealth Lab Pro since 1/15/2010 which is when I explored using that program to arbitrage the S&P 500.

    Fidelity quit carrying that data around June 2012, so ever since then there isn't a source for the codes I have for Cash Cow.
     
    #911     Aug 7, 2013
  2. dev

    dev


    Jack.

    No, I dont wish to re-read this every 6 months.
    I don't want your method. I have my own, and I'm happy with it.
    And to be brutally honest, I'm deeply suspicious of anyone who cannot explain a concept in a few sentences. Experience tells me, it probably doesn't work. Or, is not robust.

    More than that, you missed question I asked. And therefore, the point.

    Oh, by the way AMAITYAD, I don't think that FJID can ever be MMU. Its as clear as a carrot, on a sunny day in the rain.

    Seriously.
     
    #912     Aug 7, 2013
  3. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Same here.
     
    #913     Aug 7, 2013
  4. Don't ignore volume if it's part of a theory as grandiose as Hershey claims.

    I'm probably the only one who ever used it properly and saw the returns that appeared maybe somewhat on the level with what the "Cash Cow" 1 pager would be.
     
    #914     Aug 7, 2013
  5. Is there a place where one can find pictures of the set A,B,C, and D that you are referring to?
     
    #915     Aug 7, 2013
  6. So a Modrian table correlation matrix wasn't a question on your mind?

    Definitely a bit easier to ask what A, B, C and D are?
     
    #916     Aug 7, 2013
  7. Sorry, Nodoji. My point's moot. The volume for my version of his system isn't available any more, so it is not relevant anyway since that code doesn't have the data it needs unless your point was that you just don't look at volume then nm.

    Stat arb could ignore volume but trend wise faster rising volume bars demarcate moves more easily from that perspective than the constant volume bars that equalize pricing activity in a physics sense of the term quanta.
     
    #917     Aug 7, 2013
  8. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/attachments/10-modrain-incomplete-trend-panels-jpg.137367/

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/attachments/11-modrian-complete-trends-panels-jpg.137368/

    sorry they are so sloppy; they are from memory.

    I have a few not on this set of panels; they occur very rarely in the later bands.

    set A is the trend that is c turn to c turn an incomplete trend.

    Set B is also incomplete and is c to a to c in turns.

    Set C is the normal complete trend. c to a to b to c.

    Then there is the drift Set D. It is an even number of turns where the middle is pairs of a to b turns. for example: c to a to b to a to b to a to b to c.

    there are onlt three types of turns in markets; they are as follows:

    c turn is dom to dom.

    a turn is Don to non dom,

    b turn is non dom to dom.

    to take the full offer I trade c turn to c turn and just hold through the a and b turns.

    The panels of the Modrian Table are fun since you know on n -1 turn when the n turn reversal is coming up ahead of time.

    drift trends are known are "chop" in CW ese.

    As you see here my posts are "haunting" quite a few people. Why don't they keep me on ignore?

    All the lookups are in the "contest" thread whose OP is bighog. go to page 2 and look around the middle post on that thread which is in the trading forum.

    Today the open was long and the c turn came on bar 4 as a c band pass.

    the short that followed was a set C type trend

    bars of turns and their EE category were:

    7, a, PP3 to 9, b, BM, REV to

    12, c Ab, LVBO

    Two Seat A tends followed with c/s on the following:

    14, c, PP3

    15, c BM, ERV.

    Then a Set B trend came along:

    15

    19, a BO, T1 to

    21, c, BM, REV

    A brief c to c followed and then a drift began.

    21

    26, c, Ab, LVBO

    As youe the days go by quite uneventfully. The c turn reversal simply alternate in sentiment. The SetB is rare but you can visualize that the a to c is the same sentiment.

    the Modrian table is used to detect c turns. when the c turn is absent, then this deduction dictates the next type turn has occurred at that EE.

    All the math expressions for the whole system are in that post on page 2 of the contest.

    It takes about 34 days to have an order of magnitude change in capital without compounding. Sweeping on Fridays works fine. the idle capital just accumlates each week. A half a year takes one from 1,000 to 1,000,000. This means there is little incentive to learn how to use 10 or so lookup tables. In this thread many many people have explained how troublesome it is to use volume.

    Systems based on RDBMS are still quite uncommon in the financial industry. The CW mindset prevents a lot of thinking about the very simple finite math system of the market's operation. So few parts and no probabilty and you know one turn before the profit segment that it is coming.

    Haunting thing to not be able to grasp any of this. It was fun for me to make up the tables and the precision definitions. It would be fun to revive the ET chat room and run the Dragon typed audio of a GTM session. I thought about running a Dragon created thread of real time calls for the trading forum. BUT ET cannot keep the time stamp very accurate for some reason.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 9, 2019
    #918     Aug 8, 2013
  9. The annual global meetings were considered a treat by those who attended. I was surprised to read that you have reasons to not bother to attend. Happy you. The list was cut from 700 to 70 last time. Spyderman said he ws a limp noodle after narrating a whole day's trading. furtunately he could hook some webbing around to relax.
     
    #919     Aug 8, 2013
  10. So are channels and S&R.

    Four funny things you missed out on.
     
    #920     Aug 8, 2013