Actually it's very simple, though it's not easy. If it were both simple and easy, everybody would be doing it, and everybody would be making money. But though everyone tries, nearly everybody fails. In fact, nearly everybody races toward failure with a single-minded determination. Do you want to succeed or fail?
Most trading wizards put a lot of emphasis on high probability setups but then came some smart paper traders and said that it does not matter if you are winning 30% of the time if you make more than you lose on the average to have positive expectancy. But the expectancy equation does not take into account that returns are non-ergodic and you can get a lot of losers in a raw before the win rate stabilizes and be kicked out of the game early as a result. I think edges exist. For example the methodology followed by this blog points to some edge with the goal of spotting high probability setups in various etfs and stocks that are validated in other markets. Although I find the approach elaborate it appears that it has sound foundation.
Key word being "appears". If sufficient details are provided, it can be tested and verified. If not, it's most likely just another sales pitch to sucker the losing trader. As for the "smart paper trader" remark, you are probably correct. Competent traders aren't going to be satisfied with a 30% win rate. For one thing, those who really trade will understand the psychological damage that can be and usually is done by repeated losses, resulting in taking profits early if and when they come because the trader is too afraid to hold. As far as "edges exist", of course they do. But few traders define "edge" correctly, as if it were a special talent or skill or attribute of some sort bestowed by the trading fairy. The edge begins with the knowledge one gains through research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability and a risk to reward ratio that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. One doesn't just buy it from somebody somewhere.
The antithesis of complicated is simple â which trading is Whether or not it is easy depends solely on youâ¦. and how well youâre able to play follow the leader â without the mistrusting / questioning / personal BS ============================ Think in terms of control and pressure â who has it / whoâs applying it / and to what extent buying / selling wise that is RN
People that say trading is easy or simple....they're veteran traders. In addition, today's markets are too complex, uncertain, ambiguous, frequently changing intermarket relationships and globally connected. Therefore, when a trader says he/she is using a simple method or keeping it simple, that is a trader accomplishing such because he/she has a deep and complex understanding of today's markets...something a newbie trader can only obtain after many years of trading experience. This is the reason why simple methods can be easily learned but extremely difficult to apply in real trading conditions until one obtains enough trading experience.
Uncertain, yes, and few people can trade in an environment of uncertainty. But "many years"? No. If one can tell up from down, it takes a fraction of that. It begins, of course, with a study of price movement, then a trading plan. Almost no one wants to do either. But that's the wannabees' choice, not a fact of life.
so far today TF 2 minute I discern that the "opening" was a bit volatile and then drifting higher, nothing much..... you don't use volume do you ? thanks
Seeing as though speculative trading comes under the general heading of gambling, you shouldn't be too surprised. As for the edge that is required, you can either make money speculating, or you can't. Not much to post about really, except for theory and opinion. But I guess that's all about, 'talking a good game'.