Some how your mind is operating on the idea that a channel system equals the entirety of TA and its all of equal worth. It does and is not.You went on to develope price drivers, the results of which are not so notable, yet what do you do with these price drivers? Publicly call tops/bottoms and entry points. If you thought there was any substance to random entry systems you would be trading it, its nothing more than a counter point to an inner demon of yours.
Surf, please stop talking to yourself again. wrbtrader was making the point that you promote and get financial compensation from vendors that sell TA courses while bashing the very same method here at ET. How do you think that affects your credibility?
Yes. Eloquant Q. But not a quant Q. I recommend that everyone print and save the last few posts by MS on what he "calls" "channels". Particularly save the message contained therein which reads: "Since I can't do this; no one can do this". All time frames (TF) show 3 observable fractals (See mathematical definition). These fractals are interlocking. By constructing channels (See mathematical definintion of a three point parallelogram which has a Right TrendLine (RTL) and a Left TrendLine (LTL)), one may SEE with precision when (as a defined event)a trend ends and concurrently the new trend begins its brief overlap or FBO. Anyone who thinks a channel has an upper line or a lower line will fail and quit using TA. There are some participants in this thread for whom failure has happened. If they do not know why, then they should read up on channels. We are not talking about a Wikipedia level of reading or research. A seventh grade Geometry book or better must be used. Channel trend trading is a leading indicator approach. On the trading fractal, the trend turns can be defined and measured. For the four types of trends, the turn before the failure of the channel is identifable (n - 1 event). Knowing that you know this event, a RDBMS can be used to carve the last turn (always dominant to opposite dominant). Therefore, by using channels on three interlocking levels where the trading fractal is the middle fractal, it is always TRUE that any number of consecutive trades (all profitable) can be executed by an advanced beginner. NB: All turns of channels are ID'ed as they occur by using the independent variable. Any Noobie who goes to work for a prop firm learns very early (within a few days) that channels have RTL's and LTL's and they DO NOT have upper and lower "lines". Noobies are invariably told to use a parallelogram. Losers invent from that poiint onward and create upper and lower lines. In trading, where there is a static upper line it is called RESISTANCE. there is a lower line as well; I can't remember its name but it has an S in it somewhere. When S replaces R and you are short, then you stop will be hit soon and you lose (and vice versa). Find out every 30 minutes as MS suggests. How can a beginner in TA confuse R and S with channel construction? Well we found out for sure. It takes time to mine fine whine. But mine is not over the line.
You don't have to know whether price will break out or reverse at a S/R level to make money. You don't have to know what price will do after you take a position in the market to make money. I'm a trend follower when price is trending and I trade reversals in ranges and when price action signals that a trend may be reversing (even if only briefly). If you study price action with the sort of intensity an aspiring brain surgeon studies the brain, you'll learn to make plenty of profit by identifying patterns that repeat again and again and again.
If you can't read my stuff, do not worry abput it. It is just gibberish to you. Nodoji is talking about 10 trades in a row. Donna is NOT talking about coin flipping. Averaging profits to get hard stops is a cool thing. As a market gets more robust the dominant take gets bigger. then later when an R or S on a slower fractal shows up you can let the hard stops tighten. Some people use Bollinger bands and candle stick "shadows" (shadows is the math term in coding for outside the body parts of candlesticks) to execute plans and strategies. Here "averaging" lengthy sadows is used in the opposite way of the hard stops. Bollinger knew, but others did not catch onto, how candlesticks and B Bands interact. When they do then a reversal is done. Capish???? lol Hey another edge appears out of the mist. All trend monitoring is done in a band ontext. the market shows 10 discernable bands in the independent variable. as a trend progresses the context chages. have you noitced in price how bollinger bands for channels or varying steepness. Can you connect this to the shadows of candlesticks? 145 pages to get serious. LOL ....
Can one know before hand if you are seeing a FBO or is it always after the fact. I find it gets messy as price approaches the right trend line. Usually, one is already in the trade as it approaches the RTL. 2 examples of a RTL FBO is EXP and FSLR from a couple days ago. IF I am drawing in the RTL correctly, how early can one know that a FBO is at hand?
Nodoji, If you don't need to know, then why "think " you know by taking a directional position--- if you don't need to know ( which I agree with) why not just reasonable random entries? Then you contradict yourself in the 3rd paragraph by saying repeatable patterns happening again and again. If you don't know, how can you say patterns repeat again and again? It seems to me you are speaking in circles. surf
It's surprising that you claim to have decades of trading/market experience yet you act like you have no understanding of probability and statistics. I didn't say the repeating patterns repeat 100% of the time they appear. They repeat more often than not. If I trade pattern A when it appears within price action context B because I've found that this combination of pattern/context results in favorable move C before making an equal adverse move D at least 70% of the time, that's an edge. If I trade pattern X when it appears around S/R level Y because I've found that this combination of pattern/context results in favorable move Z before making adverse move Z/2 at least 50% of the time, that's an edge. In either case, I don't need to know whether this particular appearance of AB or XY is going to be the gainer or the loser as long as I keep trading them whenever they set up and trigger an entry.