you sound like a sheep. let me hear u say "baaahhh" im not trying to get a following. if i was id be nice and kiss your ass tell u nice things. to answer your question although rhetorical. no u should not believe anyone. i never told u to be a follower. u were taught that in school im done here. i'll check up on u in a year and u can tell me to f%*k off after you've carved your own way
I agree with you that the trend only exists in hindsight. Trend trading at it's core (despite the "trend traders" who strongly try to argue against this point) is prediction. There comes a point when you say "before the previous tick the trend was not established, however after the most recent tick I have now established a trend and feel that price is more likely to continue in the direction of the trend." "Trend traders" will say nonsense like "it's not predicting, it's reacting," but their reaction is a prediction; they are predicting that price will continue in the direction of the trend or why else would they even take a position? To be honest, even if I could only predict that small part of a move, I would be happy. Trend trading, in theory, is fine. Who cares if you don't get the entire move? After a certain amount of movement, if you can predict that price will keep going in that same direction for a certain amount, that's a great system. I would do that all day long.
I missed the part where you contributed anything in this thread. You are saying a lot but you have only given fluff, not useful information about trading or about thinking critically.
i was gonna add it to edit but i'll add it here. you missed the point. I was trying to do u a favor but you couldn't see it. you'll look back someday and be thankful.. one more time say it. . "baaahhhh"
What 1a2b said was the opposite of what a "sheep" would say. He was encouraging logical and independent thought. How is that sheep-like? @ your other comment, yeah, a little from everybody. Like Bruce Lee said, absorb what is useful. Disregard the rest. Unfortunately, most of the trading advice out there is useless and unhelpful.
Anyone can predict price will do anything. You just say, "I predict price will go up from right here" or "I predict price will go down from here" or "I predict price will go up to point A before falling to point B" and so on. No one can guarantee their prediction will be accurate. A consistently profitable trader has learned to predict the odds of a specific prediction over series' of trades of a certain number that allows the trader to realize profits in the window of time desired. I don't think you will ever be happy because you seem to want to predict moves accurately every time, and not even the likes of GS can do that.
I know you based upon the real-time before the fact trades you posted in your trade journal. There's others publicly known on Wall Street but I'm sure you don't have access to their resources but I do not know them personally to hook you up with a discussion with them. See, I thought you were talking about "trend direction" which is why I was wondering why you were not talking to long term traders about such. It now seems like you're talking about "tick direction" as in trying to predict the direction and that now explains why you've been trying to learn the methods by scalpers and day traders that are into such a small time frame. Further, I just now remember you posting second charts or tick charts in a thread here at ET. Let me know if I'm right about your definition of "price direction" involving the next few ticks. Also, jumping from long term trading into scalping...that's a tough gig to do as I'm sure you've have already notice by now. Sorry, I'm not into the random theory discussions, coin flip discussions or prediction discussions. That implies traders are concentrating on the trade method and not anything else that's arguably just as important as the trade method on most trading days. The most important edge is you involving how you manage yourself when you interact with the markets. I think you're still talking about "position size management". In contrast, in those other threads, I thought you were talking about something completely different involving position size management. Anyways, you're basically saying you're a profitable trader but your profits are small via the fact you have this fear of blowing out. Ok, I get it now. Maybe you should be dealing more with the "psychological aspects of trading" considering day traders and scalpers doesn't seem like the answer you need to help you get over the fear of "increasing" your position size. I say this only because there are a few journals here at ET involving traders that made consistent small profits and couldn't get by that mental barrier to increase their position size. In contrast, they selected to instead try to learn a new method. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. You already have a strong bias against those at ET that have attempted to teach you even though you don't directly attack them while they're sharing their methods with you. Instead, you carefully walk a fine line via knowing its bad taste to attack those that have freely taken their time & energy to help you here at ET. You then attack the words like gurus, vendors and book writers even though they were not the ones helping you here at ET. More importantly, they were not the ones here that you've become frustrated with in reference to those ET members that have participated in your threads with their methods. Seriously, this is not a personal attack. You should put all of your efforts into your long term trading because that's where the money is at for you regardless if the profits are consistently small from trade to trade assuming your goal is to make money. Concentrate on the psychological issues involving increasing your position size unless the real issue is that you're under capitalized. If the latter, that can easily be fixed (e.g. get another job and save your money like crazy until you're properly capitalized to put on the appropriate position size in those long term trades). Stick with what you know.
WRB-- Are you a profitable trader over time? No need for paragraphs upon paragraphs to obfusicate. A simple yes or no only. thank you, surf