hmm.no edges in the markets

Here we see how two different people think of their trading.
One has a distinct advantage.

Common sense should tell you which one.



This could be a very educational thread, for anyone new to trading.
With that in mind, keep posting surf.

 

So true, Tobbe.

 

For the umpteenth time:

I am not a pro. I'm a small retail trader who trades for a living because I learned to run my business properly.

 

I'm taking a little summer break, but my trader buddy sparked the idea for a little tune based on "Mamas, Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys", and I wanted to leave everyone with some late summer entertainment in honor of Brother Surf's new baby.

Here's the original tune for those who aren't familiar with the melody:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RePtDvh4Yq4


Traders ain’t easy to love,
When they’re losing their dough.
They’d rather fight a strong move,
Than just go with the flow.

Dreams of quick millions and new red Ferraris
Attracts the young playas to trade.
They don’t understand supply and demand,
They look for a strong trend to fade.

Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be traders.
They’ll try to pick bottoms and try to pick tops,
They’ll av’rage down as their account balance drops.

Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be traders.
They’ll cut short their winners and let losers run.
It won’t be very much fun.

Traders like multiple screens ‘cause it makes them feel awesome.
Price ladders flashing and clutter all over their charts.
They’ll get rich quickly -- it’s easy, and when they do,
All will be theirs for the taking.
When in fact, it requires a new way of thinking,
In which ego is crushed from the start. :eek:

Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be traders.
They’ll spend several years on a Quest for the Grail,
And lose tens of thousands as each of them fail.

Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be traders.
They’ll join Elite Trader and argue all day,
How the edges have all gone away.

 

For my favorite elite trader technical analyst, NoDoji

The first elitetrader baby from annaland &marketsurfer at 2 weeks:
http://twitter.com/marketsurfer/status/365287859361546241/photo/1

Thanks for the levity.


surf

 

You made my day .

Have a great summer break.

 

Surf, are we getting stuck on this phrase?

"the only factors needed to profit"

I don't think any of the proponents of TA/PA say that, but if my understanding is correct it's what they use to enter a trade and place stops and targets.

PA/TA is the impetus to put on a trade then comes trade/plan management, experience, etc.... all come into play.

Is your whole thing that if there were TA/PA patterns in the market that people traded on a consistent basis that the efficiency of the market would soon remove that opportunity?

You actually serve a purpose on this board, your constant antagonist attitude towards anything PA/TA has probably gotten people to share more ideas on the subject.

From a few of your posts on the TA/PA debate I get the impression that you really want to believe people can consistently make money trading using TA/PA.

 

The claims i have the most issue with are the ones that state all that is needed is a chart to consistently earn money from the markets. ND, RR, and Hershey have all stated this. multiple times,

Yes, I want to believe. Just like i want to believe in psychics and other metaphysical things. It would be very cool if it was true. That's why i keep pushing for new ideas, but get back nothing but the same old weak arguments. ALL my research, contacts and practice has shown that pure objective TA is not an edge in the market. Yet, folks like RR, ND, Hershey etc insist otherwise. ALl they need is a chart to make $$ consistently due to "recuring patterns" that only they can see , and all the academics and quants in the world can't see them, but they can.

Understand, if the quants could see them, the patterns would quickly vanish as they would be arbed out of existence--- so these folks are claiming superiority over the best in the world. Yes, I find that fascinating since they are so entrenched with their false beliefs.

surf

 

I did NOT say all you need is a chart, I said charts are just graphical representations of market data but that the data (statistics) can be viewed, analyzed and a system created around. Charts visually organize that data. You need to do something positive with that data of course, looking at a chart alone wont help you much.

 

For those who can read for content, draw a Venn diagram and notice where various regions overlap. Look at the retail, theoretical physics, superiority, academic consistency overlap zone. Mark it JH (skip the incessant spelling out of my name as the standard).

Now look at the 10 cases I use for price. Try to imagine arbing them as a quant. What is the last case that remains? As you can see the quants cannot arb price cases out of the market.

Do the same for the independent variable. The quants put 70% of the data in that variable and so far they cannot arb out the patterns in the independent variable as they fight among themselves.

Now, go higher in the type of building blocks the market displays; namely, trends and turns. There are four types of trends. MS surfer sees the quants arbing out all four types so there is no tranding and thus no turns. Why aren't the quants arbing out all these things? As MS says they cannot see them. We all know he is not referring to charts that they do not use. Quants use stats derived from theoretical physics. As a quant and academic fromerly associated with a top tier B school and as a former MTS (like derman) at BTL, I am cool with using quant tools. Quants use their tools to invest, primarily BUT lets get down to intraday trading using leading drivers of price. This is BEFORE order execution.

What is in the HERSHEY tool box? Lots. Look. WTF? No one is arbing these out of the market's data set so far. My tools are there they re in use, surf have posted them as being the most evil he has ever seen. BUT WTF? They are still there and no one is arbing then out of existance.

Why does everthing show on a chart? Why is all of this posted mathematical stuff (RDBMS coding) for each and every piece and building block I use showing on a chart?

It is not a secret (MS states it as well). Why does everything show on a chart?

Why does A. Lo of MIT mention some of the things they show for CW thinking? They have CW names is why.

What is the link from SEEING and PERCEIVING to making money all the time? There is only one hypothesis. MS has never mentioned it.

What is the singular principle quants use to make money (extract money out of a market and into an account)?

Is this what MS says he is phishing for? What is MS phishing for?

Does MS ever ask questions to learn or to aid his thinking? Does MS have a question mark on his keyboard?

In quant land, the market always is bound by two limits. The limit functions use a time basis for their expression. What is the quant requirement for the limit to work? Why is this linit function always in play and precise? I teach this to noobs the first week so they can replicate the quantification on these limits. By having a display of such, the noobs always know the active extremes stated BEFORE the and while the extraction is taken.

All TA is based on quant stuff for me. Quants are a subset of TA. Quants simply set the boundaries of the application of TA edges.
So what is arbing in quant land. It is just slowing down the market so anyone has the time to let the arbing push their trading.

MS has available ALL of my system pieces, ALL of my trend pieces, ALL of my turn pieces and all of my quant limit stuff. He also has the glue: ALL of the OOE's for the pieces. He says no quant has ever seen (meaning looking at stuff in markets) any of this. I am beginning to believe MS's view that his quants are really becoming what he describes. The quants I meet are very quick on the uptake, however. All the people who are in the top 12 of my colleagual expert traders do not use any quants on thier programming staffs. Why bother if you are into taking the fukl offer of the market all the time.

I have no reason to insist on anything. Everyone do as you please.