Feeble eh? Then do tell us, why do HFT players spend fortunes trying to shave micro seconds off if its not to stay competitive in comparison to the other players in the market, and why are those players doing it in the first place if not to increase their edge? Hedge funds focus on a world of assets and employ a small universe of strategies, are you actualy suggesting they face and have to over come the same challanges concerning risk position size and liquidity as a 100 contract/1000 share day trader who can monitor and trade the same four financial products until kingdom come, and find suitable replacements in an eye blink? Hey, im also quite curious to know how they can use TA to maximize the gain, knowing when to exit and as importantly knowing when not to, but some how it cant be used for knowing when to enter. Is there a TA on switch thats activated only after entry? Ok. . .
Yes, very rare but possible. Larry admits his wins were pure luck. Believe it or not, Larry is now part of Niederhoffers group. His first day with us at the Central Park stock talk, LW debated VN about TA---it was incredible to witness---LW lost the debate and over the years since has adopted our ideas mostly. surf
The difference between Surf's camp and the TA/PA camp here is that Surf's camp believes their method(s) are the only way to profit consistently (or they believe that only institutional level traders can profit), while the TA/PA camp believes that TA/PA is only one of many ways to profit consistently. Although I trade purely based on the technical analysis of price using two intraday time-based charts, I believe that it's possible to be consistently profitable based on fundamentals, arbitrage, HFT, counter-trend fading, range or volume charts, time & sales/DOM only, buy and hold strategies, swing trading strategies, option strategies, etc, etc, etc. Just because I failed to end up with net profits over time using some of these strategies, I have no basis upon which to tell the ET community that the strategies employed by ammo, atticus, bone, TJWinston, or even Surf's price drivers, are fairy tales designed to lure in noobs that flock to ET. If most of the beginners studied high probability setups, developed a trading plan around them based on careful research, and then followed their plan, there wouldn't be a very high failure rate. That's where my edge comes from. The programmed trading, implemented by the large traders that move price significantly, creates certain recognizable patterns. Since the human brain is still the most powerful computer known, it can learn to recognize these patterns and find high odds/low risk entries based on them. I utilize three of them and I've discussed one of them on ET several times. The institutional traders who have to put millions or billions of dollars to work are the ones whose actions create the price patterns that the small retail traders can profit from consistently. If I had to manage millions of dollars of other people's money, I absolutely could not do it via day trading the way I currently trade, because my methods are based on the price action footprints created by those who manage millions or billions of dollars. Why is it that you and Surf and many others who post along these lines have such difficulty differentiating between the methods a retail day trader or very short term swing trader uses, and the sort of methods that fund managers, market makers, locals, hedgers, and investment banks use to trade? Fund managers, for example, don't even have to have a profitable year to be considered successful; all they have to do is meet or beat averages.
The attitudes some people get from the success of others by association are actualy hilarious. Have you ever noticed its always go to the prop firm, not come to my prop firm or fund, its always the real players make fortunes every day like clockwork, not I make fortunes every day like clockwork. Its as though these people become exposed to an institutional trading environment and become hypnotized by the capital they see being moved around, they then think they are above the rest and everything below what they have Seen is worthless, all the while they could not trade their way out of a paper bag using the simplest of tools.
Truth is, despite the hero rhetoric, the TA folks on this thread won't even demonstrate on the combine controlled environment. And when one ET TA PA user try's the combine most fail. Look around-- there is no evidence of their success yet evidence abounds for success of real edges. I can do what I want when I want thanks to an edge via a hedge fund. TA is the wrong path.
Surf, taking into account the following facts... I have no interest in trading other people's money and have already declined an offer to do so. I've been offered money to mentor people and I've been offered money for my trading plan and declined these offers. I've been offered money to write trading-related articles and declined these offers. I've already posted daily trading results for at least a couple years in the P/L threads and in my ET journal, as well as made many live calls on ET, so I have nothing to prove to anyone that hasn't already been proven right here. ...please share with me the benefits I'll obtain by demonstrating net profitability after 10 days of trading in a controlled simulated trading environment.
Can you provide the evidence of success of real edges (that involve no TA/PA methods) for a period of at least 2 years? Not just claims, but actual evidence? (And not edges that only a large trader can use, such as HFT.)
Bit of a feeble response there surf, if "anything you want" via your "hedge fund edge" amounts to the contents your journal then it is safe to say your trading reflects no fund edge because a fund that operated like that would be out of business...
The carry trade is one example of a past edge that lasted witch required no TA/PA--- but yes most edges only last for a short time because the market morphs as it doesn't like to lose for very long.