Well get long then Tex.! Herbalife is the NVDA of the multi-billion dollar powdered brocolli market. You can't lose!
Then you better stick to that Earl.... ......re stocks hanging out at the highs not going lower.... tell that to the HTZ shareholders.
You still need to understand statistics. Long term fundamentals are function of the present value of the future cash flows. But to calculate the proper discount rate to derive that PV you need to understand probability to properly value the variation in the cash flows.
That may work for oil, but thats not the way stocks work. FCF is certainly one of the most important metrics when analyzing a company... what you're missing with our beloved pyramid company here... is future revenues are going to decline. Hence FCF. Hence, the multiple. Hence the stock price. Statistics has absolutely nothing to do with a dying business model.
OK, you're right. Companies with declining revenues, declining free cash flow, and declining earnings.... trend upward. That is until the statisticians wake up one day and realize that common sense trumps statistics.... and their stock has dropped 7%... like today. Statistically speaking of course.
Zany. I like you. You seem like a smart kid. Be careful. I don't know what you really do for a living. I think you said you are married, maybe a kid, not sure. Just be careful. Math and statistics is what keeps us grounded in this game were emotions and biases can overtake us. Opinions are fine on football sunday, but if you are going to do this for a living, learn as much about statistics as humanly possible. If you would like, I could recommend a few courses (for free) on Coursera. If you want to gamble, start a weekly card game at your place. Get it out of your system. You know I'm rooting for you.