Discussion in 'Forex' started by Daal, Nov 12, 2008.

  1. Daal


    its on the higher bound right now. there are a number of reasons to expect a weaker HKD in the future(housing bubble bursting the main one) and the risk reward seems pretty good
  2. Tums


    HKD is pegged to USD
  3. Daal


    its not a fixed rate. its a 'band', its on the higher bound now but it fluctuates. if the peg breaks or changes(or just trades) its likely to be to the weaker side as governments like to do that. in theory the risk is zero since its at one side of the band
  4. Daal


    nevermind. the carry at oanda will run around -3.5% and the band is 1.3% wide.
    so even if one expects a weaker hkd he can lose money. its seems like crapshoot to try to figure out which side has value here