Historically, has there been a time where the masses could forecast a recession?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by crgarcia, Mar 14, 2008.

  1. I believe masses are usually wrong, they are only right in the middle of a trend.

    So, as far as I know, all recessions were preceded by bubbles, not by economic slowdowns (as now).
  2. We have a melt down in dual bubbles:

    A) credit. Housing is just one of the effects. Massive amounts of sketchy derivatives are an even larger problem.

    B) commodities. This melt down won't precede an econ slowdown, but will happen during a bad recession.

    Regardless of the public, this is going to be long and hard. No amt of liquidity can bail out solvency problems. the Gov will eventually get involved in a big way bailing out all sorts of shit (assuming they even can). A FED just stepping aside would accelerate the pain, but get it over with.
  3. historically more recessions are predicted thatn actually occur. the data is backward looking so we are usually in one before the data show it. a lot of the data isn't revised for several months.

    this also means that once a recession is over the same applies.
  4. H Hubbins------You are a genius!:D
  5. amylase


    You are right that masses usually don't get it right.

    The smart ppl actually predicted this one recession 4-6 years ago back in around 2002 bubble.

    Now there is no need for masses to "predict" recession than to just point it right out because we are flat out in it! open your eyes.

    If you don't want to see recession( or hyper inflation of dollar). withdraw a stack of $100 bills and lock yourself up in your room with radio silence and food stuff. Kiss your dollar bills everyday and try to imagine a wonderful boom outside.