based on historical data. when the influx of fresh faces slows down, so will the intraday "trendiness".
In the historical data you've seen, did the intraday moves in the past spike(within ~5 minute time period) on economic data releases and then flatline until the next data release or market moving event? I've suspected this was the case, but I've never seen any proof of it. If the currencies end up like this someday, where you get a few 5 minute moves during the day and the rest of the time they are flat, the currencies would obviously be hard to day trade. Thanks
This is a good thread. Damir, you should keep in mind the 'fresh faces' (ie. private/individual investors) only comprise 2% of total daily value turnover in the forex market. Therefore, their collective buying power is insufficent to either sustain or fade the recent trendiness witnessed in the forex market in the past year or so. Almost 98% of all daily turnover is made by the big players (investment banks, commerical banks). The contribution made by the individual investor is largely inconsequential.
What you wrote is accurate. The 2nd most important factor in trading (besides luck which will always be #1) is market selection. You can't trade a market which simply doesn't move (e.g. take a look at ES during last 10 days, or between Sep-2003 and early 2004). The hot / moving markets change over time. Stocks, commodities, currencies, real estate, bonds etc So, one needs to have the flexibily to move around and "ride the wave" as long as it's available.