Hey don't get on my case, I am just presenting data haha. Here is some more info about it from wikipedia. If you don't know what the Hindenburg Omen is I suggest you go to google.com...... Anyway, 23/25 success rate isn't bad. The Hindenburg Omen get's an A. "Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. However, the occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down, although every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Because of the very specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, it is possible that this phenomenon is simply a case of overfitting. That is, if one backtests through a large data set and tries enough different variables, eventually correlations are bound to be found that don't really have any predictive significance. The fact remains that out of the previous 25 confirmed signals only 8% (two) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines, so it is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress."
i can say same thing with or without Omen or Hindenburg or both... at any given day...here is my prediction-at some point in next 40 days market will rise at least 5%. and i'm pretty damn certain that this will happen. now what? how to hell you(and i) are going to profit from it?
I think its important to recognise that the hindenburg omen is in fact multiple omens. One doesn't have a lot of meaning but two or more can be significant. The more it occurs, the larger the move is likely to be. Prior to the 2008 crash we got the omen something like 7 times in forty days.