I am currently testing the accuracy of a simple indicator that is based on EOD quote and trade data from ESignal. This indicator is not for daytrading, but should be useful for longer time frames and predicting changes in trend. Very simply, is parses ESignal tick files (*.EPF) and compares trades to bid/ask prices to determine the amount of outside buying and selling. It identified the selling pressure in MSFT before the recent drop in price, but I need to do long term tests to see if it will predict major trend swings. Below is the output of date, B% transactions at the ask (buying), S% transactions at the bid (selling) and a chart covering the relevant data range: 050824 : B27% S71% 050825 : B19% S79% 050826 : B21% S76% 050829 : B37% S61% 050830 : B19% S80% 050831 : B21% S76% 050901 : B20% S79% 050902 : B25% S73% 050906 : B31% S68% 050907 : B29% S70% 050908 : B31% S68% 050909 : B29% S68% 050912 : B29% S69% 050913 : B25% S74% 050914 : B24% S74% 050915 : B24% S74% 050916 : B16% S82% <-- Big Selloff spikes (mutual funds perhaps) 050919 : B26% S73% 050920 : B28% S71% 050921 : B25% S74% 050922 : B30% S69% 050923 : B29% S70% The real question is, will it show a shift in pressure near the bottom, and can one take action soon enough based on this information?
More recent data: 050927 : B28% S70% 050928 : B30% S69% 050929 : B30% S69% 050930 : B29% S69% 051003 : B33% S66% 051004 : B30% S68% 051005 : B31% S68% 051006 : B27% S71% 051007 : B32% S66% Initial selloff was from 75-80% sell activity, but its now a bit lower at 65-70%. The price activity confirms the trend. About a week is missing because I was away during that time. Profitability is about 10% over 6 weeks.
Curious...have you tried your indicator on something that has exhibited extreme pressure and volatility in either direction to see if it will spot the top/bottom direction change? My thinking would be something like the OIH or GM.
Interesting thread, do you have more data so you can look at a year or something? best regards, Stalker
Main problem is, ESignal only provides last 10 days of data, and I've never found a data vendor for TAQ data over the long term.