High probability of Market Crash early next week

Tell me Runningbear, in which wigwam should I hide?

 

S&P500 weekly chart showing rising wedge enclosed within massive megaphone top – warning of another Black Swan.

Ignore the trolls and would be traders - be careful folks.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/wed-june-1

 

Bump

 

Nice chart

 

seems like there are too many bears out there. i don't think we crash, we probably are flat to higher this week but what do i know.

 

Collectively, all of you contributors should be locked up for your own safety...with the exception of one...and it sure as hell does not include the OP.

Get a grip!!!


NiN

 

You still haven't addressed how you calculate high probability in this case...specific metrics used and whatnot.

 

Since August 2010, we have had a tremendous bull move ( 30% + market wide ), which was followed by a choppy ranging market that we are still in ( range S&P 500 approx from 1250-1360 ). In this same time period, Elitetrader posters have predicted around 50-100 market crashes or major corrections and on at least two occurances a mob on here has declared the correction as a done deal. Lots of congratulations from some when we hit 1250 after the earthquake, about how the bull market was over and we'd cross 1200 within days.

So, basically short memories across the board, and I guarantee you that 98% of these posters have lost money chasing crashes since August. They'll claim they made money.

The most incredible thing about this is we were in a confirmed bull market since 2009, and the P/E of the S&P 500 has become extremely cheap due to blockbuster corporate earnings.

So why not another wave of market correction and crash predictions ? This is after all the general theme of Elitetrader all the time. Myself, I tend to think valuations are too cheap to violate the bottom of the range, and the upside remains.

But this Elitetrader, home of guys like EMRGLOBAL who in all seriousness declared that the US will be in a DEPRESSION in 6 months. Let's check this in 6 months. I think the S&P 500 will be higher then it is today, but we'll have another few hundred crash predictions on Elitetrader by then.

 

moderators, please ban this person immediately. he is far too sane for e.t.

 

Stop bumping and tell us how high the probability is? For a big market meltdown 5% is high, but I will start to worry when you (somebody from the interweb) say 50%+ high....