Discussion in 'Trading' started by G_Morgan, Aug 23, 2003.
There appears to be a high probability of a significant top on the NDX.
IMHO next year we have election in the US. The only thing that the economy need to go further up is JOBs JOBs JOBs.
When the summer is over and Bush is back on his seat he will creat jobs jobs jobs.
Last earning season was better then expected. Sure the expectation was low and easy to beat but I think more important was that things go better.
No doubt that the market can set back around 3-4% to the lower BBands at this point, but this will only be a good buying opportunity and not a MAJOR TOP.
And everybody is crying "THIS IS A TOP" regardless which article you read or which CNBC guest you are listen to. I am a contrarian.
Anyway nobody knows for sure and we will see.
the bull only warming up...every time mkt pulls back a bit ....there's a new thread on ET named "This is Da Top"
Mkt took in some shorts on Friday just to squeeze them hard on monday..
Next years election cycle has already been discounted by the market. The market is already expecting solid GDP growth, solid earnings, etc.
IMO, people aren't screaming about a top. If you turn on CNBC, everyone is a perma bull. Larry "pro growth" Kudlow is literally dancing in the streets. The "New bull market" knuckleheads are out in full force. Bad news is swept under the rug (i.e. FRE debacle). Good news is treated like royalty.
How is Bush going to create jobs so quickly? a new New Deal? lol
of themselves given the admitted fact by technology CEO's that the hi-tech industry is much more "mature" than back in the late 90's.
Sure, there will be "pockets" of high growth rates in the tech-sector ( silicon on insulator, SOI would be one area as higher processor rates will require chipmakers to search for much more energy efficient chips ). But in the end, the technology sector as a whole is pretty "mature" relative to where it was 5 years ago.
ie.) Dell is making money on only 16% gross margins!
That's why HP is getting killed by them.
In fact, I believe that the WSJ said on Friday that the P/E's of the top 100 tech stocks were at 35 TIMES 12 MONTH FORWARD EARNINGS!
Back in the late 90's and coming out of a recession the P/E ratio for the same stocks was HALF of what it is right now.
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