Discussion in 'Stocks' started by dumpandbasher, Dec 5, 2008.
This POS has almost quadrupled off its lows! Will stay out of the way for now.
do you know stuff about their exposures?this could be a good short target $0
Fade this rally!
I'm not sure how bad their exposures are, but this move is just begging to be shorted. I got stopped out a few times when I tried shorting their last runup from 8 to 20 though, so I'm gonna wait a little longer. Wow, it's really crescendoing now.
Classic short covering rally
Bear market rally.
Shorted this at 15.30. Looks like it made a double top at 3:32.
Got this off the yahoo board:
IN THE MONEY: Hartford's Rosy View Of 'Unrealized Losses'
By Michael Rapoport
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (HIG)
boosted its earnings outlook Friday and said its businesses and
capital position were solid, offering rays of hope to a market
yearning for some. The company's market value more than doubled.
But there's at least one assertion Hartford made that raises
eyebrows - and if it turns out to be wrong, the consequences could
overshadow any financial strength Hartford shows in its operations.
Hartford said it "expects to recover the vast majority of its
unrealized loss position ... even in a deep recession." Translation:
Hartford thinks the losses it's suffered on its investments during the
financial crisis will ultimately reverse themselves - even if the
economy stays bad - and won't become long-term losses that would
require the company to take big impairment charges against its
That's quite a claim, and it may be too optimistic. Big chunks of
those investment losses, which have grown sharply in recent months,
stem from risky securities whose value may not recover anytime soon.
Other portions of the unrealized losses have already hung around on
Hartford's books so long that it's hard to think of them as
"temporary," as Hartford maintains they are.
Both of those factors suggest that a lot of Hartford's unrealized
losses are here to stay and really should be treated as long-term
impairment charges that would hurt earnings - though Hartford
continues to resist treating them that way.
"Unrealized" losses are a basket on a company's financial statements
that holds investment losses the company deems to be temporary and
recoverable; such losses lower a company's book value but don't affect
its earnings until and unless the company determines they've crossed
the line into "other than temporary" status and an impairment charge
is needed. The thing is, it's up to the company itself as to when that
happens - and companies tend to resist that for as long as possible.
Hartford had $11.6 billion in net unrealized losses as of Oct. 31,
up from $6.8 billion just a month earlier. Those figures compare to
about $1.5 billion that Hartford expects in "core earnings" for 2008,
excluding charges for investment losses and other items - so any
impairment charges that are needed could swamp the core earnings.
Of the $11.6 billion in unrealized losses, $652 million were from
subprime mortgage securities and another $3.8 billion were from
commercial mortgage-backed securities - items for which a recovery
anytime soon seems questionable, at the very least.
Those Oct. 31 numbers are mid-quarter - if you go back and look at
Hartford's Sept. 30 figures for the end of its third quarter, it
raises even more questions. Of the $7.8 billion in gross unrealized
losses at that point, $4.1 billion had endured for more than a year,
which doesn't sound like those losses should still be considered
Well the market is teaching me something new now. This stock quadrupled and after a few days it still hasn't had a pullback? Maybe if it was a penny stock, but not for a stock over $10. Never seen that before. Until now.
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