Gold is a panic metal. That is, when panic ensues, people rush to it. When you see gold rocket, and silver hanging tight or declining, it's fear you are witnessing. When you see both rocketing, it's inflationary hedging. That being said, I think both of them are nearing the end of their cycle up movement. This trade is becoming very crowded.
Wait untill the next +trillion $ bail out package is anounced somewhere. And then the next. That's where we might come to see some real panic.
See, that's where I believe you're wrong. A panic is not going help gold. It will in the very short term, but once positions begin to be liquidated across the board, margin calls will force people to close profitable trades (gold) to fund losses. The same thing that happened in October 2008. That type of panic kicks everything in the "nads". Gold isn't going to save the day. You'd need more trillion dollar packages without a collapse. Not sure we can continue doing that.
Remember when they bailed out AIG and Fanny and Freddy and everyone was screaming hyperinflation hyperinflation? They will continue to bail out everyone in need untill oil is at 300$ a barrel or rates at 20%.
If they had their way, yes. But they won't get their way as the market simply cannot tolerate it. A crash will occur whether they like it or not. If you remember, the AIG bailout came in August. By October-December, gold had cratered.
The entire world was "in" gold & silver for 5000+ years. They started getting us "used" to paper money about 100 years ago, but its really only been 1 generation that we have been off the gold standard. Gold & silver is not going up in value, its just regaining its historical monetary base, while fiat currency is being exposed for what its really worth. Nothing.
If you wish to make references to pre-industrial or even medieval eras and then compare them to today's age, you are more then welcome to make yourself look silly.
Top to lowest point in the gold correction of 08 was what, 30% in USD, even significantly less so in foreign currencies? That's barrely bear market territory. Many stockmarkets crashed at least 60% those of China and Russia +75%? Oil went from 150$ to 30$. Best was to be short or in cash but the latter was only profitable given the bail out of the financial system otherwise that would have taken a significant haircut as well if not a total wipe out. So is there a significant downside risk to gold? Obviously but tell me something that doesnt. Are there assets that clearly have the potential to outshine gold by a mile? Can't see that many. Would I buy today? Though call since my entry point was far lower than it is here.