This question is key. I too have wondered if Tim actually has a trading plan (hence the origin of this thread), or if he just shorts small cap MoMo stocks on "gut" feeling, which is how he appears to trade on WSW. He even describes his strategy on the show to potential investors as "short biased microcap cap companies that I THINK are only up because they are being peddled to unsophisticated investors." He says "they have no reason to be up so much so I short them because I don't THINK they can stay up". That strategy, mixed with a pinch of emotions is like a recipe for failure. And, as Tim's broken fan can attest to, he is a very emotional trader.
Well yes there will always be the people that are stupid beyond belief and can't get it right no matter what stroke of fortune comes along. But any one with even half a brain could have made money...hell Timmay did it.
I like the part in the video where Tim's upset over his big concerned investor packing up "he hasn't even lost any money!" What does that mean, he's paying you in cocaine?
I suspect that this is exactly what Taleb was talking about in "Fooled by Randomness" trading skills vs the lucky idiot.
My auto mechanic took 5k to 250k in 4 months buying ATM and OTM calls in AOL every 20 points up for awhile...planned on cashing in at $1mm. The account went from 5K...to 250K...to 1.5K. He still does my oil changes. This guy did not even know the daily newspaper had a financial section. My dentist put $100k each into AOL YHOO and ELNK and cashed out at $4mm. He was the lucky one. Bought a gun metal gray Diablo, and a Ferrari Modena along with a few other trinkets...oh and a few thousand hair plugs...personally I think the strippers he bangs now, are more attracted to the wheels than the plugs. My girlfriend bought 500 JDSU which turned into 2000 JDSU and $500k. She never sold and threw in the towel in 2002 for a few grand in proceeds. All three just happened to be in the right time and place...for awhile that is. Take out '73/'74 and '88 acquisitions from Warren Buffet's returns and he goes to TBill rates of return.