From experience, I would also agree that now is not a good time to 'enter' a long position. Neither is it a good time to guess and bet on if the big short is just around the corner. I'm getting that feeling I had when I said all the four horsemen were way overbought in mid 07; I remember at that point, that anyone who even dared mention the word 'short' was laughed off the board, and every dip was bought (as prognosticated by stock tr3dr), much to the chagrin of agonizing short tears.
And where were YOU 12 months before that? Dr. Zhivodka Registered: Sep 2002 Posts: 4372 04-10-08 06:58 PM The market will never go down again....in terms of a massive drop of course. The Bernacke Fed has indicated with their words and deeds that they will BK the country to prop the share market. It's a free bet Dr. Zhivodka Registered: Sep 2002 Posts: 4372 10-18-07 11:55 PM I hear ya brotha... ...I'm just saying that there's too much vested interest these days to let the market get whacked by 25%. Not that it doesn't deserve to be....It just won't be. Bull market geniuses....
I'm in agreement with most of your observations. Seems you have made an excellent case for the market going up forever!
So no one wants to talk about their short positions? Either you are embarrassed to admit you've had to sell kidneys to roll forward your shorts over the last year, or you aren't actually short at all because you agree with me. Trying to call the top in this market from now till elections is suicide. I'm not saying it can't possibly fall before then, and I'm not saying it will fall right afterwards. But you're gonna see a good obvious slide as it happens, not 18 month highs. I'd just like to hear from someone who's short. C'mon out and tell us how the water is!
Yep, there could be ANOTHER leg up. Market climbs the proverbial wall of worry and there's lots of boomer money yet to be confisicated. With short rates near zero, this should compel the public back in. Thus far it really hasn't. As for the here and now, you know, reality; volatilty is near a 3 year LOW. Not sustainable. Volatility (lots of decisions both ways and a lot of price movement) occur at tops. Get ready for a broncing buck (nothing to do with the US Dollar), but done "right", a trader's paradise. Could be a catalyst, say a nasty EPS surprise this week. Couple that with expiration. Before another leg up, I would suggest there's going to be a pause that refreshes. I would also suggest the speciialists (and market makers) en masse don't really care about politics other than to serve as alibis to move paper.
"you agree with me" does this thread have a purpose except for self indulgence on your part? ________________
just noticed that this thread got a well deserved bounce to chit chat. which is the equivalent of being put on ignored. " Hey shorts, I just want to ask you a couple questions. I promise I won't laugh.." the originator of this thread ought to laugh at himself in order to make the situation unanimous.
I guess great minds... or maybe, minds of a feather... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2329147#post2329147 Just nobody ask me when I sold it, or else I'll shoot you.