Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by SomeYoungGuy, Apr 12, 2010.
WTF are you guys thinking??!??!!???
We'll see who hah hahs last when another recession comes around and blows out your account because you think currencies are indestructable.
Eh.........you wanna know what I'm thinking?
1. DJIA is only 30 stocks, not truly representative of "industrials" and merely re-tracing where it's already been. Hmmm, between 1966 and 1982 ("long" B4 YOUR time), the dow repelled off the 1000 mark 4 or 5 times. IF and when we get to new virgin territory, then pound YOUR chest.
2. The US borrowing (and in turn spending) funded by foreigners, over the last decade is unprecedented. Virgin territory. Has to be a. re-paid, b. defaulted. c. inflated away. Which is most probable?
3. Wall Street's function isn't captial formation, it's selling paper. Devotes 24/7 effort to that task. IF and when they're out of paper, they re-load.
4. Institutions are lemmings
5. Volume has been anemic (by today's standards). That can be interpreted in more than one way. YOU could say there are few sellers. I would suggest there is mediocre demand. Public still isn't in.
6. Stocks, bottom in unisom and top one by one. Speclalists can mask carnage in one by running another. In other words shills.
7. Stocks in general fall 3 to 4x faster than they rise. A little opening gap (with a credible though not necessarily valid alibi aids the process). The beauty of a short isn't the maximum 100% (400% levered) unlikely potential gain, it's the SPEED of the move. Great fun. Almost orgasimic.
8. Scant inside ownership of any of the 30.
9. Rigged index. When one it's pulling its weight or capable of being a tool (Kodak comes to mind), it's replaced. Yep McDonald's is an "industrial". A big Mac in Portland OR tastes just like one in Portland ME. That's consistency!
10. Three month T-bills, yielding just above zero (and resulting in the steepest yield curve of all time) is not normal, nor a reflection of strength. Mister market will eventually correct the disparity. But that's bonds, and we're talkin' stocks, right? Then again, YOU put the thread in economics. By design?
11. All those regional and community banks laden with commercial RE loans, based upon dubious appraisals, and in turn participated out to downline correspondents makes for a one big clusterfuck. Pit that against high yielding REIT's and an 18% present vacancy rate. None of course are in the DJIA, but good old JP Morgan is.
12. Hey. Perk your ears up and bound out of your bedroom. Mom's calling you for supper.
A dozen little aspects of what I'm thinking.
It's easy now. Where were you 12 months ago?
I don't get it. What does it matter what the market will do in the future. Right now it is up. And you need to play it that way.
I've found that whenever I feel the urge to start bragging about my positions, usually a reversal isn't too far off.
Ok, I will engage. Please answer these questions if you will:
How did your portfolio do after the mid-june and mid-jan dips?
Did you pile on the short positions?
How'd that work out?
What short positions do you have?
How long have you had them?
By percentage, how much are they down?
How many times have you averaged down on these losing positions?
At the current rate of market growth, how long until your account is blown?
Since you asked, no I don't think this rally will continue forever. I'll tell you exactly how far it can go: Election day this November so the Dems can sweep Congress.
It's easy now but now 12 months later I wouldn't touch it. Too many on the bandwagon now. However other things are now ripe for the picking.
You should stop trading, assuming you are trading, you are lost and about to lose everything.
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