Hey all you price predictors: when is a pullback gonna come?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by 1a2b3cppp, Jan 19, 2012.

?

  1. Before the end of next week

    19 vote(s)
    25.7%
  2. between 1-2 weeks from now

    7 vote(s)
    9.5%
  3. between 2-3 weeks from now

    2 vote(s)
    2.7%
  4. between 3-4 weeks from now

    3 vote(s)
    4.1%
  5. between 4-5 weeks from now

    4 vote(s)
    5.4%
  6. NEVER!!! GO LONG CALL OPTIONS WITH FULL MARGIN!!!

    39 vote(s)
    52.7%
  1. Well, SPY has to drop to 126.73 before the close of today in order for the people who voted "before the end of next week" to be correct.

    Last trade: 131.58.
     
    #51     Jan 27, 2012
  2. I have heard some really bullshit volume analysis before, such as:

    "If the close is higher than the open, more people bought than sold."

    Someone is always on the other side, that's why it's called 'trading.'
     
    #52     Jan 27, 2012
  3. Everyone who voted "before the end of next week" is wrong.
     
    #53     Jan 27, 2012
  4. tortoise

    tortoise

    that was the pullback, folks. hope you enjoyed it.
     
    #54     Jan 27, 2012
  5. Mvector

    Mvector

    1302.00 level hit this morning - last ES cover at 1382.00 to close out ES trade.

    6E trade took covers at 1.3160 - 1.3120 from Friday entries fading the rally - adjusted last covers that would close out 6E trade to 1.3080 - 1.3030. So far so good - today may end up being the "hold it or fold it" day for the market sitting just above 1300.
     
    #55     Jan 30, 2012
  6. cfu

    cfu

    Nice job Mvector. Perhaps the only thing missing is where your stop(s) were, though you probably just didn't post it, but basically great job getting into the trade and taking what you were given with realistic expectations.

    I used to have guys in the group constantly prognosticating market collapses and getting into shorts 'because it's coming.' I'll also mention that this was back in '06 - '07. Suffice it to say, they blew up before the big move. By constantly lining yourself up for the home run you will end your trading career very quickly.

    Like I said last week, 'trade what you see, not what you think.' Is bad news being bought? Is good news being sold? When the boat is tipped to far to the 'buy' side is when we see collapses. With so much uncertainty out there, it's hard to imagine an overbought scenario for the moment. And remember the dynamics of market moves; selling momentum is much higher than buying momentum, which creeps and crawls with occasional bursts.
     
    #56     Jan 30, 2012
  7. SPY price has to drop to $126.73 before the close on 2/3 for the people who voted "between 1-2 weeks from now" to be correct.

    Last trade: $131.37.
     
    #57     Jan 30, 2012
  8. Mvector

    Mvector

    Cover filled at 1.3080 and took last part of trade off with rally back up through 1.3100 - flat Euro and waiting for any new signal there.

    Holding last ES for 1282.00 close out - will fade ES rallies above 1319 to build position back up - I still like fading rallies in ES at this point.

    cfu - I use dollar amount stop - set dollar amount loss for each trade and instrument I trade - I work liquiditity into trades until I hit dollar amount stop out or 4:1 reward to risk minimum for trade to end with profit.
     
    #58     Jan 30, 2012
  9. Almost back up at the recent high.

    Two days and 1 hour for the "1-2 weeks" people to be right.
     
    #59     Feb 1, 2012
  10. dv4632

    dv4632

    Maybe no pullback for a while, the Dow has broken the downtrend from the 2007 high...

    [​IMG]

    So prices might go a lot higher from here. Unless it's a bull trap, in which case they'll go lower. :D
     
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    #60     Feb 1, 2012