I finally started to sell into rally today - 1319.00 cost basis in ES, selling 6E with 1.3098 cost basis - started selling today after fed lies - LOL! no thanks to buying any pullbacks at this point - need to go much lower before I would be interested.
"Trade what you see, not what you think." That is what I used to tell our guys and it's what you should be telling yourself everyday (premkt, mkt hrs and AH). Trading is about sentiment, not reality. Fundamentally the world is staring into the abyss. Fundamentally the US credit market was staring into the abyss since '06, but look how long that took before the move finally came. Anyone shorting into these bleed ups with expectations for the eventual -5% ES move is going to margin call themselves into oblivion. Go short, fine, but you had better make sure it is near defined resistance levels with a crystal clear exit plan. A big part of this game is being able to see through the b.s. and recognizing reality from government-fed figures / headlines. An even bigger portion of the game is DISCIPLINE, which includes not throwing money away on sooth saying predictions. The 'crash' will happen when it happens.
Faded ES and 6E final end of day action - final end of day cost basis in ES at 1322.25 and 1.3115 for 6E. covers for ES set to 1312.00 - 1302.00 - 1282.00 covers for 6E set to 1.3080 - 1.3055 - 1.3005 Will work this trade tonight and into tomorrow cash session and then evaluate to hold or fold.
ES cost basis prior to open now at 1324.75 - one cover added at 1219.50 6E cost basis prior to open at 1.3152 - one cover added at 1.3122 all other covers still in place for cash session action - by end of day will hold trade or close out according to market action.
Another up day, hmmmmm This market is going to roll over soon, anyone who thinks that a market that goes only one way is a fool, this is not a healthy market right now!