Hey all you price predictors: when is a pullback gonna come?

That's a new one.

So are you saying that after two consecutive green bars there is a greater chance of the next bar also being a green bar?

 

That's what I have experienced.

I believe Jesse Livermore said the same thing but more eloquently.

Human brains are wired to look for losses/red screens.

When they see an uptrend (gains/green screens), they get very nervous and hesitate/don't buy. Why? B/c they are not seeing losses/red screens.

 

Uptrend - higher highs being made, last higher low holding
Downtrend - lower lows being made, last lower high holding

When the last HL (uptrend) or last LH (downtrend) is taken (did not hold), it could mean that a trend change is in progress or that it was a fake and the old trend continues.

 

I believe this could be easily backtested.

if (yesterday and yesterday-1) = green
{
BUY today open
SELL today close
}



*waits patiently for someone to backtest and also waits for the BACKTESTING IS WORTHLESS crew of "gurus" to hijack this thread*

 

also, how would you string them together?

Do you ALWAYS buy if the previous two days were green?

So in other words, if the chart goes like this:

day 1: green
day 2: green
day 3: green
day 4: red
day 5: green
day 6: red
day 7: green
day 8: green
day 9: green
day 10: green

You would buy on:

day 3 (because day 1 and 2 were green)
day 4 (because day 2 and 3 were green)
day 9 (because day 7 and 8 were green)
day 10 (because day 8 and 9 were green)
day 11 (because day 9 and 10 were green)

correct?

Or is it ONLY on the day after two green days preceded by a red day, in which case the only day you would buy in the above example would be day 9.

 

The current level for a 5% SPY pullback is $129.36.

 

I could only fully answer that question if I were you.

But b/c I will never be you, I can never fully answer that question.

You are asking questions that go beyond the definition of an uptrend.

So, the best answer I could give is:

Given your "example" and based on my previously stated definition of an uptrend:

I would "look" to buy on day 3, day 9, and day 10.

 

Anyone who said:

- Before the end of next week
- between 1-2 weeks from now
- between 2-3 weeks from now
- between 3-4 weeks from now

Was wrong.

 

The new price for a 5% pullback in SPY is $130.32.

 

S&P futures were up today

Crazy!