Hershey's Equity thread

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by oddiduro, Aug 21, 2003.

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  1. Here is a screenshot of the top of my list, sorted by volume.
     
    #51     Aug 22, 2003
  2. simstim

    simstim

    baggerlord, you also need to filter out stocks that were down the previous day. you want stocks that are moving up in price, with increase in volume.
     
    #52     Aug 22, 2003
  3. I've been doing a little chart surfing, and have noticed that these super high volume days often act as strong support/resistance when used in support of other chart characteristics, and can often lead to strong new trends.
     
    #53     Aug 22, 2003
  4. simstim

    simstim

    hi jack, i read your paper on p,v, a/d.

    is this particular strategy looking for stocks that are currently "7"s (p+, v+, a/d+) and moving up to 6,5,4?

    or are you looking for 0's that could soon be turning into 7's?

    for me, i find volume difficult to interpret becuase often a stock will go with the overall market, so it could have a breakout day in both price and volume, but then the next day it retraces a lot of its breakout also with high volume esp. if its a negative overall day in the indexes....i assume this is not a type of stock we want to look for?

    thanks!
     
    #54     Aug 22, 2003
  5. Thanks much, simstim
     
    #55     Aug 22, 2003
  6. bubba7

    bubba7

    The key short list comes from the bottom of the stocktables.com sort.


    It got to the bottom because the sort by increasing volume put it there.

    These stocks have two volume characteristic: low volume and little volume change. this list bottom was achieved by adjusting the EPS AND RS to values to lengthen the list to about 100 stocks.

    You see that we are showing some sophistication in combining stuff to save time and not sacrifice performance.

    16,000 down to 100 and 100 down to 10 stocks that are going to Breakout in a day or so.

    Let's think this through.

    We are going to assess these babies next and see if they rank high enough to get bought on the break out.

    How do we do that. On the excel assessment sheet we need five cycles in the time shown on clearstation with EOD data.

    If we do not get it, we chuck the stock. If we get five cycles, they are averaged and from that we see how much money they make a day for us. you can look at the maths and see what the rank is in terms of units to determine this. Good work you get it.

    Notice that the clearstation has a different default for MACD than we will be using when you bulk review a portfolio. Their default lags the natural cycle and "bridges it seriously.

    You look at the list 2 and 3 to see if any assessments are needed there as well.

    This system replaces the seven equations I used before Y2K on TC2000 Ver 3.0. The effect is the same. The only lesser thing is that I used TC2000 to eliminate the effect of institutional block trading. It is not a big loss.

    By having a sort around the trough of the cycle at three successive parts of this transition, we get to see the cycle unfolding for individual stocks that are top notch.

    We can compare this for a moment with two others: Mr Market and trend fader. Mr. Market does six culls that overlap. He does three filters next to get to a place to do FA on his short list. He picks one stock and buys it. His strategy he says is to get the last 15% of a trend top notch stocks are making. If he misses he keeps the stocks indefinitely. we are not on that page.

    Trend fader has asked q's about 24 assessment topics in ET, we see that he has not gotten to assessment yet. 8 years before arriving here and one year here set the scene for where he is in swing trading. He traded PG. He asked 9 different people with 9 different methods to work cooperatively with him so they as a group could trade that persons' methods. All declined. He uses MA's for stops. What he uses bridges the natural cycle by factors of 3 to almost 10. When he suggests to beginners to use such, he changes the numbers he gives them.

    We sort stocks into three groups:Our key list is just before the bottom of the trough; the second group is rounding the trough and the third group is just before the key group.

    If you score stocks they are, respectively: 0's, 7's and 1's.

    At the onset, I am contrasting this stuff with stuff that is poor and marginal. I am doing this so a perspective can be built. I feel that by using only top notch stocks, knowing their timing (especially at the trough of the natural cycle) is an excellent strategy. What makes it better is that they are performers. They had to do what we need them to do 5 times in a 6 month period.

    In two years, Mr. market has bought 100% of 43 stocks and profited 30 times 15% and sits there holding 13 stocks which over half are not performing. this turns out to not work as a strategy by any one's standard.

    Trend fader is now turning to profitable swing trading over nine years on the learning curve(See above). He scratches/winners on 40% of his 100 trades per year and makes .5R; next most frequently, he loses on 35% of his trades; and finally, he wins on 25% of his trades making 2.5+R. as a weighted average using the nearest tens he states, he makes .575R average per trade. for 100 annual trades, he makes 57.5R total. PG was a trade that he didn't expect to make much on. He didn't.


    Our target is 10% in 6 to 8 days. Both these numbers come from our assessment of our universe simply backed up by 47 years of do it. In the terms and flames of Mr. Market and trend Fader this is unbelievable. It is unbelievable for the flamers and unfair moderator (inandlong) as well. I say "who cares".

    There is a reason for their viewpoint. As a group what they achieve is unbelievable to me as a performance.

    I am not going to trade on the level they do; I never have and I never will. There are basically 8 levels of improvement that a person can make to get from B to A.
     
    #56     Aug 22, 2003
  7. bubba7

    bubba7

    Here are the eight basic improvements that will help any approach. usually each doubles the preformance. I have no real order for these. Put them in a circle and keep going around it improvinh iteratively.

    1. Use EPS and RS.

    2. rotate threads of money using x over of money velocity.

    3. use the natural cycle as a compromise between market potential and personal efficiency (esp w/ job)

    4. enter on BO with FRV (first rising volume)

    5. exit on the high side of the trend channel.

    6. keep a stop log and set stops accordingly so you never exit on stops.

    7. do cycle compression. Opitimize the the trading cycle: in late and out early.

    8. use fractal pair to anticipate. Trade natural cycles on the 30 min fractal.

    Trend trader does none of these. He mentions Break outs in a peculiar context, however. He therefore has an opportunity to double his preformance by eight doublings. I now can easily state that everyone can understand why he posts to me the way he does. He has absolutely no performance basis whatsoever up to this point. Apparently neither does inandlong; all he has is stubborness and unfairness at the top of his list. As a moderator he has no basis for anything in the financial industry it turns out. If you do not have a clue when someone is chiding another unfairly, you are nowhere in finacial stuff.

    Mr Market is using EPS and RS at this point and nothing else.

    I am spreading out this stuff and comparing and contrasting with other's that have flamed me. They are a good baseline of nonperformance for us all from here on out.

    the OT flamers are here to give us all alugh in a sad way. Who cares?? I don't give a fuck!!
     
    #57     Aug 22, 2003
  8. bubba7

    bubba7

    Instead of making up a new way you have to follow the set up directions I gave everyone.

    Go to stocktables.com. you did not do that.

    Set the EPS and RS at 90% to begin. You did not do that.

    You set >10 bucks. you did that.

    look over the rest of the stuff. i like a lot of numbers on one page, for example.

    Finally you sort by: % increase in volume.

    Set it and push the button.


    You will get a list som manystocks long.

    Adjust the length. you do that by changing eithr of both of EPS and RS.

    This set up sticks so you have it for next week on Friday.
     
    #58     Aug 22, 2003
  9. bubba7

    bubba7

    I should have emphasized: You have to have change to make money. Bagger you need to kieep focused and you need to work too.

    The sort is to get the top notch stocks that are getting ready to make money.

    This is new to ET'ers

    The conventional wisdom is to predict.

    We replace all bullshit with reasoned excellent logic.

    By having lists of stocks that are going to breakout, you have a good chance of continually making money hand over fist.

    I gave all of this to you before you lost the money doing the stunt you did. Here is a guide for you. Do exactly what I say to follow this method. You can make it better later.

    This will be seen as a "my way or the hiway". It is not. All it says is this. To make money fast and follow my method you have to do it correctly.

    If you want to make money trendy way do it the way that that person suggests. If you want to make money the nononsencse way use no-pm- please approach. Do not use Mr market or Trend fader approaches they are not useful or transferable.

    Thank you for the questions. If anyone departs and improves this the way you did do not use any other stuff I posted as a follow on it will fuck you up.
     
    #59     Aug 22, 2003
  10. What %increase in volume is the standard to use?
    What ACC/DISS numbers should we use?
     
    #60     Aug 22, 2003
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