Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by stock777, May 28, 2010.
and explain what happened today.
Wot happened today....?
same thing that happens every month.
second-to-last calendar end session is the window-dress rally
last session of calendar month is the sideways pin... at all costs.
until the final half-hour or less when hedge funds front-run the undress process and funds dump accordingly
same-old, same-old more months than not. repeated patterns of behavior some of us predicted days ago, and months ago each time the calendar x's out.
plenty of opps to hit the daily profit goals. do it again in June
not sure I'd call Dow -100+ a sideways pin
just eyeballing the SPY, there has been some pattern lately, but I'd prefer to see a stat over time that indicates this is anything more than random.
See nothing like 'every month' in the chart.
simple. look back thru the index charts, last two sessions each month. see if you observe a general pattern there.
I've seen it enough to make the call (in bold) early this morning... at the open
Then, go create the statistics.
Often = what 50%
Final hours = what? 2pm on, 3pm on? When would you have taken a short?
Unfortunately , general statements like that are not really tradeable. If that method was viable, it would be easily backtested as a short somewhere in the afternoon and covered at the close or at a stop loss.
Unless you have that, it's just a call that happened to work out today, in a tortured way at that, with plenty of heat taken, and was therefore highlighted.
well let's see.
you started a thread asking if any index traders could explain what happened at the close. I replied with an explanation.
I also posted that patterned behavior expectation last night, and months-end prior in the blog and videos for posterity. so either I trumped all that up just especially for a self-esteem boost here in a random thread of an anonymous message board, or I had some inkling they might sell the close today.
now you're a betting man, trader & all. which way do you want to lay odds on that?
not only did I warn the team ahead of time, a veteran trader (LJH) said the same thing hours ahead of the fact. given that information, whether it was from repeated observation or wild-a** guess, we prepared for downside volatility near the close today.
that's pretty much all I have to say about that. ask and ye shall receive. you asked, I attempted to explain, you refuted or dismissed. have it your way, then
The important thing isn't predicting or knowing what the markets are going to do, it's how to put on trades and produce profits. If you stop trying to be right, it's a lot easier to make money.
Who's trying to be right in this thread? No one I see.
In any other message board forum I visit unrelated to trading and stupid ego trips, someone asks a question seeking information and any/all replies trying to provide information are appreciated and thanked for the effort expended.
Several years ago I read a piece in TradingMarkets.com inside Kevin Haggerty's section that noted an interesting fact. It used to be the last calendar session each month when window dressing occurred. If it happened, if breaking news or whatever else didn't negate the pattern, last day of the month was blatant rally for whatever reason(s).
But, regulators made a half-hearted effort to enforce some type of measure against that act. So guess what happened? The tape painters moved their scheduled market-press day back one... to the second-last trading session of a month.
I don't know the raw stats on how many days versus not this happens. Nor do I care. I filed that tidbit of info away in the back of my mind, residing with lots of similar stuff.
Now on the second-to-last session I expect potential for a rally or gap-up and go. Yesterday? Check.
On the last session of calendar I expect potential for price to resist selling or hold flat until inside the final hour, where it usually either ramps or crushes into the bell. Always? No. But when you get sell signals late, expect them to work.
Anyone who's followed my public stuff for any amount of time has seen / heard me discuss this days ahead of time, over and over again. Got it from Haggerty many years ago, caught many sessions expectedly because of that.
Now there ya go. The rest of the story
Separate names with a comma.