It's not as simple as the Fed won't cut in a stable to up market. Certainly no fervor or mania is upon us, he can cut without blame and at the first sign of rising unemployment he will. If not sooner, an inter meeting cut would not be a big surprise at this point. Remember stock wise we are just flat for the year. All January on's worth of good earnings news wiped away... what of the global expansion once in a lifetime story... has liquidity dried to the point of stopping China dead in her tracks? I don't think so.
The fed cut rates last week, are you expecting another cut this week? That would not look good at all, what happened to raising rates due to inflation pressure or is that all gone this month?
You know Ron this " inflation " fight is a myth. It's called cost of living & it always goes up. When is the last time a movie theater ticket went down in price? When is the last time you paid LESS for your cable T.V.? Inflation is all around us all of the time and what we do is buy a lot of inferior products with a short lifespan made in China and hope it doesn't kill us. The fed's REAL mandate keep the financial markets clicking. Stability. Gas is still over $3 at the pump despite the per barrel coming down $10> if we can't find a break there where the input costs are so obvious how are we going to fight inflation in cost of goods for stuff we use on an everyday basis? The only REAL fear for an economy is deflation... Inflation and lots of it keep the factories humming. This constant drum beat about inflation fighting by the Fed is becoming really boring in light of other financial shenanigans going on. if I told you we could fix up this mortgage mess and stabilize the housing market but big business would have to pay a little more for steel... would you take that? If you got back the ability to refinance and borrow at a good rate for small business- would you pay 25 cents more for everything you buy, cereal, flashlights, wood... I would in a heartbeat.~SI
Where the hell the market was supposed to go? Down? No it won't make money and feed the Wallstreet very much. So they are slowing jacking it up with lots o excuses.
HIGH/LOW Check in... The NYSE Index saw New Lows rising, during the market drop that started in late July. These high levels mean that investors were selling due to fear that stocks would in fact move lower. The New Lows were at an extremely low level to begin with when the S&P was rising in April and May. Then, in June, New Lows started getting erratic and rising ... this was a sign the market was heading for trouble. This was a warning I did not pick up on. At the end of July, New Lows spiked up and the market dropped. The past two days have shown some encouragement because the New Lows have dropped down well below 100. This means that many stocks are not moving down at the same rate of speed, and that they are slowing or pausing their descent. While the New Lows might look like positive news for the past two days, the New Highs are giving a different picture: The New Highs remained miserably low during the past two days. So, we now have a picture of New Lows and New Highs contradicting each other during the past two days. So, why aren't the New Highs moving up? Because investors are still afraid, and when they are afraid they don't chase stocks at new highs. The fear is not dissipating because most investors currently believe that we have not seen the bottom of bad news about sub-prime and hedge fund problems.... Of course MOST investors are usually wrong! The American Association of Individual Investors [AAII] released its latest investor sentiment poll: This weekâs survey saw bullish sentiment fall to 42.22%, above its long-term average of 39.3%. Neutral sentiment fell to 12.22%, below the long-term average of 32.1%. And bearish sentiment rose to 45.56%, above the long-term average of 28.6%! With both bullish and bearish sentiment above the long-term average it seems investors do feel strongly in both the Bear and Bull camp> that would argue for a stagnant market. However, the negative sentiment seems particularly strong relative to the historical average.>>When there are more bears than bulls the average return over the next 12 weeks is 3.7%. When there are more bulls the average is just 1.4%! Going to more extreme readings, bullish readings above 10% (10% more bulls than bears) average just 1.2% returns, while bearish readings above10% result in an average return of 3.9%. Having 20% more bulls than bears generates an average return of just 0.7%, while 20% more bears than bulls returns an average of 4.7%. The top 25 bullish readings were in excess of 47% more bulls than bears and resulted in negative returns over the next 12 weeks on average. -2.4% to be exact. Meanwhile, the 25 most extreme bear readings (minimum 26% more bears than bulls) resulted in an average 4.9% gain over the next 12 weeks... To Be Continued With A Little Luck ~ stoney ~ stoney
Boy China is REALLY is trying to kill us. Today it's Sponge Bob cards... what kids don't play and lick on those? But Boy oh Boy, but THE BIG SECRET is in Chinese steel. From ABC News* >Problems with dangerous lead, found in contaminated toys and children's products from China, extend to the steel used in everything from condominiums to factories in the United States. The imported building materials pose a potential health hazard because they are coated with paint containing lead, which is rarely used on American steel. The chief operating officer at one of the largest firms that makes money by inspecting imported building materials for lead content tells ABCNEWS.com that his company has found dangerously high levels of lead paint in large shipments of commercial steel coming from at least two different Chinese factories. Daniel Adley, COO of inspection firm KTA Tator, said that multiple shipments of steel, sent to two different American firms, were designed for use in structures such as condominiums and factories in America â and that some of the contaminated steel may have been installed. "At least two customers had multiple projects involving multiple shipments of large quantities of steel that was fabricated in some of the Pacific Rim countries, including and specifically China, and it came into this country with very high lead content," Adley said. This news indicates that retail manufacturers, including toymakers Mattel and Hasbro, are not the only companies struggling with Chinese factories looking to cut corners by producing unsafe leaded products. Commercial companies that do not have to publicly announce a recall because their goods are not sold commercially seem to be facing these issues, too. Adley said that the hazardous steel would cost an estimated hundreds of thousands of dollars to clean up. If untreated, it could pose a slew of safety hazards to construction workers, the environment and the general population, he said. "The shipments caused tremendous problems for our customers," said Adley, whose company was contracted by the steel importing firms to test the material for lead paint. In order to protect his customers' confidentiality, Adley would not identify which firms imported the steel, nor would he name the Chinese factories that made it. "It doesn't surprise us that steel coated outside the United States, where these issues are not regulated, contains lead," said Michael Damiano, the director of product development for the Society for Protective Coatings, a nonprofit group that creates standards for coatings. >> Well it's really interesting end of Rome type stuff but this is what happens to renegade growth societies and indeed the Chinese have done to themselves what we could never do... This huge trade imbalance that is so one sided... watch, it will take some time but gradually Americans will move away from what is obviously made in China. And to our government: We need a scarlet letter solution. >American's have a right to chose Non Chinese solutions to their everyday lives; if given a choice, I will buy non Chinese every time except for the Lemon Chicken. We need a big " MIC " warning on goods " Made In China " as well as " PMIC " warning on goods Partially Made In China and an " UO " warning for unknown origin. You can't have it both ways US Gov, you can't stop us at the airport from bringing a mushroom back from France or a Meat Patty from Jamaica and then turnaround and green light poison steel for our buildings. How funny- in this rush to build " Green " buildings we end up using poison steel!
Well here we are at that dangerous thursday reversal day if there is going to be one. To begin with, all eight Important Averages were up over one percent yesterday. Further, all seventeen Breadth Groupings had at least twice as many advances as declines (meaning they were all Decisively positive). The next important ingredient in the technical picture is volume. The leading Price-Volume relationship was PriceUp with VolumeUp (1281 stocks). This is the strongest of the four categories. That said, 1281 was not a particularly impressive number of stocks when there were 2197 advances in total. That leaves 916 stocks advancing on declining volume. The volume for the day in each of the four Major Averages was close to unchanged from the day before (Dow microscopically down, the others microscopically up.) Overall volume is staying too low for my liking but still we hold out hope that there are forces out there determined to drive stks higher.
To the average person it's just a little give back mid day in a back n fill kind of way. Those in the know know it's a brutal tug of war behind the scenes, the market's whole future psyche is in the balance and what looks mundane from the outside is scatter shot crazy on the inside. So many battling fronts here, the lack of REAL volume yesterday.... vs the volume that was there being decidedly positive... is it just lack of participation from a scared public...? Or the signs of an unhealthy bounce? Countrywide CEO Mozilo says he thinks housing slump will lead us into a recession... that didn't help this morning, I'm worried about recession as well... well at least we can firmly GO back INTO THE FED CUT CAMP NOW! That panacea was starting to come off the table in a drumbeat of talking heads gibberish. Money outflows last week... it was pretty huge that sucks but that's also when rallies sometimes break away and then people chase and then the pros step off, we could be setting up for that exact scenario. A Chart Neg: The NDX is forming a mini 2 day head & shoulders top type pattern with the neckline near 1920-21.A break below that would be a red flag. SPX would need a move below 1450-51 or so to confirm. All dangerously close folks! This is scary. HOWEVER the Indices bounced near support today and may have completed the 5th wave lower today without breaking to new lows. I'm a novice in wave analysis but I think if you complete 5 without breaking the low... It's blast off time. I'm in that camp. We shall see. This is all too much for the stonedinvestor who in ten minutes gutted his online account and bought rapid fire. LYTS @ $19.99 BRLC @ $6.55 These are my best ideas for now, I've been tracking them.... and so once again, I follow in the footsteps of the ancients and slowly move towards the sea. The days are getting shorter my friends although we don't know it yet, the cases of wine dwindling this last one may be my last for the season... the bug spray is low and stocks aren't much better... still the moral is HIGH or as HIGH as I can make it... I've done my part folks- now it's up to you... With a little luck, we can help it out. We can make this whole damn thing work out. With a little love, we can lay it down. Cant you feel the town exploding? There is no end to what we can do together. There is no end, there is no end. The wiliow turns his back on inclement weather; And if he can do it, we can do it, just me and you, And a little luck, we can clear it up. We can bring it in for a landing, With a little luck, we can turn it on. There can be no misunderstanding. There is no end to what we can do together. There is no end, there is no end. The willow turns his back on inclement weather; We can do it, just me and you. With a little push, we could set it off. We can send it rocketing skywards. With a little love, we could shake it up. Dont you feel the comet exploding? With a little luck. With a little luck. With a little luck, a little luck, a little luck. With a little luck. With a little luck. With a little luck, a little luck, a little luck. ~ stoney