You tell me, I got heavily short on Ibovespa 3 weeks ago and it is not a good experience to watch in my T&S screen all those gringos buying brazilian stock like there is no tomorrow!!
That chart looks a lot like employment in 1981. You remember what unfolded over the next few years? That being said, this is probably more like the bottom of 1974--an ultimate low leading up then into sideways action for 5-10 years. With the current spending and administration, an 80's/90's boom doesn't seem likely. As for your source (Shadowstats), I'm not so sure. There are certainly problems and embellishments with government data, but I've talked to Ph.D. economists about Shadowstats and their methodology has quite a few holes as well.
He is MORE wrong than he is Right. I won't explain why since that would be giving away expensive macro modeling analysis.
I believe they use old style metric - the "old" methodology that the gov't used, before they started "tweeking" the numbers. IF you look at the BLS broadest measure its like 16% or so now. I don't think John Williams is far off. Its ugly either way.
Sure, down 4% today heheh. I shorted above de 50k mark, I know guys that are sub 40 short, these are dead. May the power be with GS, look where they got rid of some Chinese bank stocks!