Here is why it is Impossible to Stop a Clever Terrorist Attack

SouthAmerica · Jul 2, 2006

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July 2, 2006

SouthAmerica: After almost 5 years of the terrorist attack in New York City â Bin Laden is free and getting more press coverage around the world about his latest opinions than George W. Bush could ever dreamed of.

So much about fighting terrorism and blah, blah, blahâ¦ â Today Bin Laden is even making regular comments to the world press about what is going on in Iraq â he also has time to nominate new terrorist leaders to make things easier to the Americans forces in Iraq.

He canât tease the Americans more than that regarding Iraq.

How long it will take for the US forces to find Bin Laden?

Bin Laden might die in the future of old age or some kind of disease - in the same way that Fidel Castro also some day will die of old age.

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SouthAmerica · Sep 18, 2012

Quote from SouthAmerica:

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Sam123: Here we go again. You know, I just wonder how long it will take before everyone gets it. Never mind that these types of threads push me to repeat myself over and over again, but I fail to understand why people from so many walks of life remain stuck in this endless loop about defeating the tactic of terrorism, while remaining apologetic to the Islamic terrorists. It just makes no sense.

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SouthAmerica: I am not apologetic for what the Islamic terrorists are doing around the world.

The radicals in the Bush administration made a major mistake when they jumped in the middle of the Middle East turmoil.

A lot of the stuff that is transpiring in the Middle East was in the process of happening with or without the US involvement. Maybe the US involvement in the Middle East did speed up the developing events.

Every American should read a book by Emmanuel Todd âThe Breakdown of the American Order â After the Empireâ which was a best seller in Europe, but in the United States the book sold very few copies â and I never saw Mr. Todd being interviewed by any American television show.

Most Americans never heard of Emmanuel Todd. And they donât know what is Mr. Toddâs claim to fame.

This article was originally published in Neue Zuricher Zeitung (The New Zuricher, Sunday morning).

July 26, 2003

âThe Conceited Empireâ

A historian credited with predicting the downfall of the Soviet Union in the 1970s now says that the US has been on its way out for the last decade
by Martin A. Senn and Felix Lautenschlager
translated by Andreas Artz

The power and influence of the United States is being overestimated, claims French historian and demographer Emmanuel Todd. "There will be no American Empire." "The world is too large and dynamic to be controlled by one power." According to Todd, whose 1976 book predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, there is no question: the decline of America the Superpower has already begun.

Emmanuel Todd compares the US to 16th century Spain, arguing that US economic power is being undermined by the decline of its industrial base and its increased dependence on other countries to feed its consumption. The power and influence of the United States is being overestimated, claims French historian and demographer Emmanuel Todd. "There will be no American Empire." "The world is too large and dynamic to be controlled by one power." According to Todd, whose 1976 book predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, there is no question: the decline of America the Superpower has already begun.

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Emmanuel Todd is a 52 year-old Historian and Political Scientist at the National Institute for Demographics in Paris. His research examines the rise and fall of peoples and cultures over the course of thousands of years.

His newest publication predicts the fall of the United States as the sole superpower: AprÃ©s l'Empire: Essaie sur la dÃ©composition du systÃ©me AmÃ©ricain (available in English from Columbia University Press in February 2004).

Todd attracted attention with a similar work in 1976, when he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute final: Essais sur la dÃ©composition de la sphÃ©re SoviÃ©tique.

Todd studied Political Science at the Institut de Etudes Politiques in Paris and completed his Doctor Thesis in Historical Sciences at Cambridge.

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This article was originally published in Neue Zuricher Zeitung (The New Zuricher, Sunday morning).

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NZZ: Mr. Todd, you write that America is economically, militarily, and ideologically too weak to actually control the world. This would gladden many anti-Americans. But how is this anything but the wishful thinking of an intellectual who is the product of the French US critical tradition?

ET: This is neither wishful thinking nor anti-Americanism. Why would I have been so prominently criticized by the left? The French career anti-American paper "Le Monde diplomatique", was the only major paper that remained conspicuously silent on my book. The over-estimation of America is fundamental to these people. It is on this topic that they agree with the American ultra-conservatives: the former to demonize, the latter to aggrandize.

NZZ: You on the other hand can be accused of underestimating the United States.

ET: On the contrary, the US is still the most powerful nation in the world today, but there are many indicators that they are about to relinquish their position as solitary superpower. In my 1976 book, La chute finale (Before the Fall: The End of Soviet Domination), I based my prediction of the fall of the Soviet Union on the relevant indicators of the time. An analysis of current demographic, cultural, military, economic, and ideological factors leads me to conclude that the remaining pole of the former bipolar world order will not remain alone in its position. The world has become too large and complex to accept the predominance of one power. There will not be an American Empire.

Nevertheless, if others are to be believed, this empire has already been long in existence. "Get Used to It" was a recent headline in the New York Times Weekend Magazine.

That is very interesting. Now that the concept no longer corresponds to reality, it becomes commonplace. While there actually was a basis in reality, there was scarcely a mention of the concept.

NZZ: Then you are of the opinion that there was an American empire at one point?

ET: The American hegemony from the end of WW II into the late 1980s in military, economic, and ideological terms definitely had imperial qualities. In 1945 fully half the manufactured goods in the world originated in the US. And although there was a Communist-bloc in Eurasia, East Germany, and North Korea, the strong American military, the navy and air force, exercised strategic control over the rest of the globe, with the support and understanding of many allies, whose common goal was the fight against communism. Although communism had some dispersed support among intellectuals, workers, and peasant groups, the power and influence of the US was by and large with the agreement of a majority throughout the world. It was a benevolent empire. The Marshall Plan was an exemplary political and economic strategy. America was, for decades, a 'good' superpower.

NZZ: And now it is a bad one?

ET: It has, above all, become a weak one. The US no longer has the might to control the large strategic players, primarily Germany and Japan. Their industrial capacity is clearly smaller than that of Europe and approximately equal to that of Japan. With twice the population, this is no great accomplishment. Their trade deficit meanwhile, is in the order of $500 billion per year. Their military potential is nevertheless still the largest by far, but is declining and consistently over estimated. The use of military bases is dependant on the good will of their allies, many of which are not as willing as before. The theatrical military activism against inconsequential rogue states that we are currently witnessing plays out against this backdrop. It is a sign of weakness, not of strength. But weakness makes for unpredictability. The US is about to become a problem for the world, where we have previously been accustomed to seeing a solution in them.

NNZ: Assuming you are right: how did this budding empire slide so quickly into decline?

Further reading:

"The Eagle Has Crash Landed", Immanuel Wallerstein's lead article in Foreign Policy a year ago, made a very similar argument: US power is in decline, but it can still do a lot of damage on its way out.

"'A Dream Only American Power Can Inspire': The Project for the New American Centuryâs vision of global military dominance", which appeared in issue #1 of the Dominion, examines the thinking of the neoconservatives who hope to wield US military might for a long time to come.

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September 18, 2012

SouthAmerica: I just found on YouTube a Charlie Rose Show were Charlie interviews Emmanuel Todd.

My guess is that this interview happened in the Summer of 2003, because they mentioned the US invasion of Iraq.

Emmanuel Todd is an outstanding historian and forecaster.

Emmanuel Todd: Breakdown of the American Order â April 16, 2012

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/5OgoL8p6DtI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Interview with well-known French historian Emmanuel Todd. Even though Todd has some good points he still hesitates and mentions that he's not anti-American. This is probably a result of Western propaganda and problems with free expression in the West.

After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order (French: AprÃ¨s L'Empire: essai sur la dÃ©composition du systÃ¨me amÃ©ricain) is a 2001 book by Emmanuel Todd. Todd predicts the fall of the United States as the sole superpower. Todd examines the fundamental weaknesses of the US to conclude that, contrary to American conventional wisdom, America is fast losing its grip on the world stage in economic, military and ideological terms.

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Here is why it is Impossible to Stop a Clever Terrorist Attack

SouthAmerica

SouthAmerica