In the long term, equities have always outperformed bonds. Stating that bonds get better returns is just wrong.
reposting this from another thread. amazing (or not?) that the sentiment has swung 180 degree in ~1 week. now there are too many bulls among the newsletters. July 19, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT Goldâs run is almost over Commentary: Excitement in the gold market has reached fever pitch By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) â Brace yourself, gold traders. Bullionâs extraordinary run is fast running out of steam. Donât be surprised if gold pulls back in coming sessions. At a minimum, such a pullback would be a health-restoring event for the bull. However, such a pullback could also be the start of something more serious. Weâll know soon after it begins. For now, though, the important thing for short-term traders to know is that excitement has grown markedly over the last couple of sessions, and now stands at close to the fever pitch that prevailed in late April. Soon after that previous crescendo of bullish enthusiasm, of course, gold encountered a stunning air pocket and fell more than $100 per ounce. Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at 67%, which is within shouting distance of the 73.7% level the HGNSI rose to in late April, which was a several-year high. The wall of worry that the gold market has been climbing in recent weeks is close to disintegrating, in other words. This represents a big change from just a few days ago, when that wall of worry remained quite strong â surprisingly so, in fact, given that gold had already run up by quite a bit and was close to its late April peak (which was registered at around $1,560 an ounce). This is what allowed contrarians to forecast that gold would be able to significantly break above its previous all-time closing high. ( Read my Jul 13. column in Barronâs âGold can head even higher.â ) Click to Play Why gold could lose grip on $1,600 An extended selloff in stocks and a drop in the Swiss franc against the dollar are two signs that the rally in gold is likely to fade, Richard Hastings, a macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities, tells MarketWatch's Laura Mandaro. The deteriorating sentiment picture doesnât mean goldâs run is over, I hasten to add. The bull marketâs longer-term future depends in no small part on how sentiment reacts to coming market weakness. It would be a positive sign, from a contrarian point of view, if the gold traders were to quickly run for the exits in the face of that weakness. That would suggest that there remains an underlying climate of skittishness about gold, which would allow the wall of worry to be quickly rebuilt. In contrast, it would be a negative sign if the gold traders cling to their new-found bullishness in the face of market weakness. Contrarians believe stubbornly held bullishness to be a particularly bad sign, suggesting that more downside action is necessary before a sustainable rally can once again begin in earnest. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...over-2011-07-19
despite today's single day drop, the past reality is that the bulls have enjoyed a stress-free ride. most recently they had small setbacks in Feb and May, but they are just little blips along the solid uptrend. it remains to be seen if the current move down may amount to at least the other two corrections in size. on the chart there are some similarity to the previous excessive moves when the price keeps hugging the upper BB before a downleg. but who knows... the things seem to be more clear in terms of Bernanke Line. SPY/GLD could be bouncing up short-term. will post later on that.
I find this guy's articles not consistent, but I am not making the effort to go in detail of what he wanted to say in both articles. It is not a good sign for short side that he turned bearish when Gold went down yesterday.
don't know. i see. he rushed out with his article to be the first who "knew" the sentiment swings in gold that he reports are very interesting nonetheless.
range bound makes sense: lots of confused people jumping to new conclusions every day, lots of volatility, hard to find the direction.
1. Today GLD gapped down, yet put options premium went down. Market makers may have knows something. 2. 1:38PM: silver just touched 39.889. How did SLV do? Update: Unless SLV on google is delayed, SLV is one 1 dollar off (management fees?).