Gold Can Head Even Higher By MARK HULBERT | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR With many worried market timers still heavily in cash, the metal has an ample source of funds. The sentiment stars are aligning powerfully in favor of gold continuing its recent rally, which has already taken it into new all-time high territory. That at least is the forecast that emerges from a contrarian analysis of the current mood among gold market timers. These timers, on balance, have become gloomier than they have been since July 2009âeven though gold then was trading around $930 an ounce, or nearly $600 less. And an asset is often helped by having to climb a wall of worried investors. Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as represented by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at just 20.3%, which means that the average gold timer is allocating 79.7% of his gold-oriented portfolio to cash. That means that there's still a lot of cash that can be put to work buying gold. That's amazing, given that gold is trading at or near its all-time high in recent days In midmorning trading Wednesday, gold for August delivery was trading at $1,579 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Since the mood among the gold timers tends to rise and fall along with gold bullion itself, you'd expect their average exposure level to the metal among market timers to also be close to an all-time high. >> http://online.barrons.com/article/S...74125447388.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_bottom
I thought that the author of the article above makes that sort of analysis when an instrument is selling off, not when it is at a new high. Any comments?
Acording to Lakshmi Capital management llc. gold price will reach $2800. Article written in forbes magazine, Lakshmi Capital thinks gold is best investment so far. Their managed account returned 150% in last 3 years. Situation in Europe will get worse, it will give furthur boost to gold price.
Did anyone come across articles that discuss the possible effects of a debt rise deal on the price of Gold? I do not see why the deal could not lead to a decline in gold prices?
=============== Risk is in any uptrend or downtrend, or cash or T bills or bank CD ; but lots of work with trends , no mystery why gold,GLD is nice uptrrnd. Note PIGS, greacy PIGS, socialists out of control.... Frankly i dont vote on many polls; may or may not make a public price target, if i set one.......
i don't see any problems with his analysis. he is looking at the most recent bottom and says that the gold bugs panicked there and still refuse to buy as it moves higher. this articles worries me (as i am a proponent of going Long SPY:GLD at Bernanke line) because Hulbert detects really strong negative bias towards gold (but we are talking ratio here, so he could be correct and Ben's line will still hold) a contradictory to Hulbert's claim is that other sources on the web (not quantified in any way by me) show that there are plenty of Gold bulls out there. an example is the article above where somebody cites 2,800 target, also many people on ET are bullish. basically Hulbert could be wrong, or only somewhat correct
The thread indicates your personal bias to counter trend any rising asset more so then a real trade. You are looking for opinions that support your bias. I'm more inclined to look at the recent price action ( clearly trending up ) and normal seasonality ( I believe I heard Gold's bullish season starts in July ), and I would never short against those factors. That being said, Gold is a very unreliable trade. Gold stocks might do well if you think Oil will drop, but the best entry points were earlier on.
Any "study" on gold that starts in 1981 is biased and should be dismissed out of hand. Unless you're willing to compare stocks and gold since 2000 as well.